\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event: the company announced that after preliminary accounting, in the first two months of 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was about 10.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20%.
The net interest rate attributable to the parent company is expected to reach a record Q1 high, and the performance of non-standard and Maotai 1935 is bright. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company from January to February was about 50.50%, higher than that in the first quarter of previous years, mainly due to the continuous upgrading of the structure. According to local channel research, during the Spring Festival in Maotai, the dynamic sales are stable, the price is stable, the inventory continues to maintain its position, and the pattern of short supply remains unchanged. Maotai 1935 channel, a new single product, is profitable and has sufficient impetus, which is expected to contribute a new growth pole to Maotai. In terms of non-standard, channel feedback shows that the pace of making money and putting it into the Chinese zodiac, high-quality products and the 15th year of Maotai is significantly faster than that in previous years.
Adjust the structure and raise the price, release the output of base liquor, and accelerate the development in 2022. Last year, the company successively launched strategic measures for high-end large single products, demonstrating the company's determination to upgrade the product structure. While pushing up the gross profit margin, it will further enhance the high-end positioning of Maotai and expand the brand influence. Recently, the prices of Maotai new treasures and aged liquor have also increased in the past 15 years. In 2017 / 2018, the base liquor output was 42800 / 49700 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% / 16.0%. The sales volume of finished liquor in 2022 is guaranteed. Based on the above, the company's products are expected to increase both volume and price in 2022, and the performance can be accelerated.
The new management is active and enterprising, and the company is expected to usher in a period of high-quality development. After taking office, Ding Xiongjun, the new chairman, has been proactive and frequent in reform policies. With a more open, pragmatic and enterprising style, he has continued to convey a positive signal about the development of Maotai to the market. At the channel level, the company maintains the market with more market-oriented means, the price is controlled, the rational return is realized, and the pressure of public opinion is reduced. Overall, the company's base liquor production capacity continues to expand, and the new promotion of Maotai 1935 and Zhenjiu has brought new growth poles. It is expected to realize the simultaneous rise of volume and price. The company may usher in a performance acceleration period of high-quality development in the future.
Investment suggestion: the company's 2021q4 performance is accelerated, the revenue is accelerated in the first two months of 2022, the high growth of performance is guaranteed, and the Buy-A rating will continue to be maintained. Fine tune the company's earnings per share forecast from 2021 to 2022 to 41.41 yuan and 49.40 yuan, and adjust the six-month target price to 2400 yuan, which is equivalent to 41x P / E ratio in 2023.
Risk tip: policy and consumption tax risks, the risk that the control effect of Maotai channel does not meet the expectation, and the risk that the expectation of price increase fails
