On the morning of December 27, with the fall of the hammer on the plot of Gongchen street, Fangshan District, Beijing, the third round of centralized soil shooting in Beijing was officially completed. So far, all 22 hot cities have completed the three rounds of centralized local photography this year.
Since this year, the Ministry of natural resources has implemented centralized land supply in hot cities, that is, it has issued land transfer announcements and organized transfer activities, and the rhythm of centralized land supply activities is no more than three times a year. As a major adjustment of the land supply side, centralized land supply has a significant impact on the fund collection mode, development rhythm and market supply rhythm of real estate enterprises, and can also more intuitively reflect the degree of market prosperity.
From this year’s market performance, three rounds of centralized land auction have experienced the heat change of “hot, cold and stable”. An intuitive performance of is that the heat of the first round of centralized land auction is high, and many real estate enterprises register Majia companies to participate in land grabbing; The heat of the second round of soil racking decreased sharply, the phenomenon of flow racking and flow standard increased, and the premium rate decreased; The phenomenon of streaming auction and standard auction of three rounds of centralized local auction has been significantly reduced, and the performance of state-owned real estate enterprises has been strong, becoming an important supporting force for the market.
This is related to the adjustment of local auction rules, the change of real estate market policies and the strategic adjustment of real estate enterprises. Some practitioners pointed out that although the government departments reduced the threshold of local auction, the liquidity contraction since the second half of the year still led to a sharp drop in the willingness of real estate enterprises to take land and affected the second and third rounds of centralized local auction. Judging from the results of the third round of local auction, so far, market confidence has not fully recovered.
the rules are gradually “friendly”
in the three rounds of centralized soil shooting this year, the situation of “hot in the South and cold in the north” has not been changed. since the first round of centralized land auction, southern cities have maintained a good heat. Since there is no ceiling price, Chongqing has set a record of the highest premium rate for centralized underground supply with a premium rate of 38.82% in the first round of land auction, and the premium rate of some plots even exceeds 100%.
In contrast, northern cities such as Shenyang, Changchun and Qingdao are relatively cold. In all three rounds of centralized land supply, the premium rate of Qingdao is only 2.5%, which can be described as “ground flight”. Changchun has become one of the cities with the most flow auction. Among the three rounds of centralized land supply, 13, 8 and 9 plots failed to clinch a deal respectively, and the lack of bidders is the main reason.
Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute believes that the uneven heat and cold of land transactions is due to the differences in the heat of the property market, inventory and land quality in different cities.
Due to the good fundamentals of the property market in Beijing, the three rounds of centralized land supply have a certain heat. This year, the total amount of centralized land supply in three batches in Beijing reached 85, the trading volume reached 57, and the total transaction amount was 190.041 billion yuan, all of which were at a high level in recent years. Under the strict bidding rules, the average premium rate of land transaction is only 5.6%, the lowest in recent years.
In terms of rule design, the rules of three rounds of earth shooting have experienced a process of continuous improvement, and some loopholes have been repaired gradually.
For example, in the first round of centralized land auction, in order to improve the bid winning rate, many real estate enterprises registered a large number of Vest Companies to grab land, resulting in dozens of bidders for a single plot. Since then, Dongguan, Nanchang, Suzhou and other cities have issued policies to curb this phenomenon. in the second and third rounds of centralized local photography, the “vest” company almost disappeared.
In addition, Chongqing, Shenzhen and other places with high premium rate in the first round of land auction also control the premium rate by setting ceiling price, capital review and other measures. Overall, the average premium rate of the second round of centralized land supply in 22 cities has been reduced from double digits to single digits. The premium rate in Guangzhou, Qingdao, Tianjin, Wuhan, Changchun, Shenyang and other cities is even less than 1%.
in addition to the changes in rules, the liquidity of real estate enterprises has been frustrated since the second half of the year, which has also become the reason for the sharp drop in the heat of the second round of centralized local auction. the relevant person in charge of a listed real estate enterprise in Beijing told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, “the company will collect funds and give priority to paying wages and paying debts. It has no energy to participate in local auction.”
By the end of the third round of centralized land supply, the confidence of real estate enterprises had not been restored. In this regard, some cities continue to adjust the rules. Shell Research Institute pointed out that the third round of centralized land supply rules changes are mainly reflected in three aspects: real estate enterprise qualification, capital requirements and allocation proportion:
In terms of the qualification of real estate enterprises, the third round of centralized land supply in Nanjing reduces the threshold of enterprise qualification and relaxes the restrictions on joint land acquisition;
In terms of capital requirements, the proportion of deposit in Suzhou is reduced from 50% to 30%, and the proportion of down payment is reduced from 60% to 50%. The land payment is allowed to be paid in installments in Guangzhou. The requirement of lump sum payment within one month is cancelled for some plots and adjusted to be paid within six months at most;
In terms of allocation proportion, 9 plots in the third batch of Hefei have no allocation requirements for affordable rental housing, an increase of 9 over the second batch, and 42 of 51 plots in Hangzhou are pure homesteads.
In addition, the supply scale of core areas in Chengdu, Hefei, Suzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou has increased significantly, reflecting the improvement of land supply quality. Take Hangzhou as an example. At present, the supply planning and construction area of the core area pre announced in the three batches accounts for 39.0%, which is significantly higher than 24.4% in the second batch.
confidence needs to be restored
The change of rules had a certain effect. In the third round of centralized soil racking, the phenomenon of flow mark and flow racking was significantly reduced compared with the second round.
According to statistics, in the second round of centralized local auction, the proportion of streaming auction and suspended transaction in Changsha, Beijing, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Hefei and Guangzhou exceeded 50%, 65.52%, 60.47%, 58.70%, 54.84%, 52.94% and 52.08% respectively; The competitive quality plots launched in Hangzhou for the first time are all sold due to the lack of registered real estate enterprises; Changchun, Fuzhou, Tianjin, Chongqing and Chengdu accounted for more than 30% of the streaming auction and suspension of transactions.
In the third round of land auction, all 35 residential plots (including a leased land) in Hangzhou were sold. When the upper limit of the premium rate was reduced to 10%, the overall premium rate of the third centralized land supply auction in Hangzhou was as high as 7%, and 24 plots reached the upper limit of the premium rate of 10%, reaching the top and entering the offline lottery link.
In addition, the streaming rate of Changsha, Hefei, Guangzhou, Fuzhou and other cities also decreased significantly.
However, the situation in some cities has not improved. In the third round of centralized land auction in Shenyang, a total of 27 plots were launched, including 19 land flow auctions, with a flow auction rate of 70%. Among the remaining 8 lands, 7 were sold at the reserve price.
“Real estate enterprises are still in a wait-and-see state, their willingness to take land is not strong, and most real estate enterprises have limited funds.” The aforementioned real estate enterprises said that although the third round of centralized land auction has a large number and high quality, which is in line with the traditional land supply rhythm of “loosening before tightening after tightening”, so far, most real estate enterprises have not felt the improvement at the credit and market levels.
in view of the impact of liquidity tightening on the market, since September this year, regulators have gradually released policy correction signals. at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference held in early December, it was proposed to “better meet the reasonable housing needs of property buyers” and “promote a virtuous circle of the real estate industry”. In addition, many cities have made adjustments in terms of relaxing the supervision of pre-sale funds, subsidies for talent house purchase, and the introduction of “price limit orders”.
However, according to the survey of the 21st century economic report, policy has not really been implemented. real estate enterprises responded that the policies of financial institutions have not changed fundamentally, and the loan cycle and cost are still high. In addition, the debt repayment peak is coming, and the disposable funds of real estate enterprises are still insufficient.
In fact, in the third round of centralized land supply, the participation of state-owned assets was further enhanced and became an important supporting force. Shengang Securities pointed out that the proportion of land acquisition by state-owned central enterprises in Changchun, Changsha, Shenyang, Tianjin and Beijing was 100%, 82%, 75%, 72% and 75% respectively. The cities with higher participation enthusiasm of private real estate enterprises are limited to Wuhan and Hangzhou with better land market performance.
Among them, in addition to state-owned real estate enterprises, urban investment companies with local government background also began to appear on the stage. Among the 20 lands traded in Wuxi, 17 were taken by the government platform; Of the 31 cases involving house and land supply in Nanjing, 18 were delisted from government platform companies. According to the data of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) Research Report, in addition to the above two cities, the participation rate of urban investment companies also exceeded 50% in the third round of centralized land auction in Shenzhen, Suzhou and Guangzhou.
In fact, in the second round of centralized local auction, state-owned real estate enterprises and urban investment companies have a certain degree of participation. Analysts believe that this can also be regarded as supporting the market under the lack of market confidence.
Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai E-House Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald that from the original intention of increasing supply and stabilizing land prices, the effect of centralized land auction has been basically achieved, and land prices have stabilized, which plays a positive role in stabilizing house prices. however, the future trend of the land market still depends on the recovery of the housing market and the recovery of the confidence of real estate enterprises. it is expected that targeted adjustments will continue to be made according to the market conditions in the centralized land supply rules next year.
(21st Century Business Herald)
