Under the general tone of economic work of “stability at the head and seeking progress in stability”, recently, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said they would launch financial policies conducive to economic stability.
“Earnestly shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy and take the initiative to launch monetary and financial policies conducive to economic stability.” Proposed at the 2022 working meeting of the people’s Bank of China held on December 27. On December 10, when conveying and learning the spirit of the central economic work conference, the cbcirc also said that it would actively launch financial regulatory policies conducive to economic stability.
Finance is the core of economy and the blood of real economy. Under the pressure of steady growth, what is the expected growth of M2 and social financing scale next year, and what are the key areas of major bank credit? The 21st Century Business Herald reporter learned that, on the whole, next year, banks will increase credit in Inclusive Finance, green development, rural revitalization, scientific and technological innovation, manufacturing and other fields, but the emphasis of banks is different, and they are still relatively cautious about real estate loans.
For example, the China Development Bank said it would increase financial support for important tasks and major projects in the national “14th five year plan”; Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) said it would further strengthen financial support for manufacturing, scientific and technological innovation, “double carbon” and regional coordinated development, and help stabilize the macro-economic market; Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) said that serving rural revitalization should be the top priority of the bank’s business work; Bank Of China Limited(601988) said that it is necessary to ensure a steady increase in credit supply, especially increase the support for large and small micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development.
“The central bank will make precise policies to guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development, and support high-quality development.” On December 28, Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, explained the “monetary and financial policies conducive to economic stability” in an interview with Xinhua news agency.
new loans next year may be about 21 trillion
Over the past two years, the central bank has continuously put forward the policy goal of “maintaining the basic matching between the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale and economic growth”.
Under this constraint, the central bank data show that as of the end of November this year, the stock of social financing scale was 311.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. Among them, the balance of loans to the real economy was 190.5 trillion yuan (the increment in the first 11 months was 18.9 trillion yuan, and it is expected that it will exceed 20 trillion yuan in the whole year), an increase of 11.8% year-on-year. The balance of loans accounted for 61.1% of the stock of social financing scale in the same period, 0.9 percentage points higher year-on-year.
According to another data from the central bank, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, the loan balance of financial institutions was 189.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. In terms of composition, the balance of medium and long-term industrial loans was 13.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%; The balance of loans in Inclusive Finance was 25.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%; The balance of green loans was 14.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%; The balance of agriculture related loans was 42.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%.
“A prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. We should guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development.” The central economic work conference held a few days ago clearly pointed out that.
According to the analysis of the 21st Century Business Herald reporter by Wen bin, the chief researcher, in 2022, monetary policy will increase support for key areas and weak links, comprehensively use a variety of policy tools, and increase financing support for the real economy, especially in the fields of small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development, At the same time, these structural and direct monetary policy tools will play an important role in supporting the real economy.
According to a report of Bank Of China Limited(601988) Research Institute, the scale of social financing stock is expected to increase by 10.5% year-on-year this year, and the growth rates of M2 and social financing in 2022 are about 8.5% and 11% respectively. It is suggested that considering the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the monetary policy should be stable, medium and slightly broad, so as to ensure that the growth rate of financial data does not fluctuate greatly and provide a satisfactory financing environment for the real economy.
“It is estimated that the growth rate of M2 in 2022 will be about 8.7%, slightly higher than that in 2021; the scale of new social finance will be about 34 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of stock will be about 10.8%, showing a trend of low before high; the scale of new RMB loans will be about 21 trillion yuan, slightly larger than that of the previous year, and the balance will increase by about 11% over the same period.” According to the forecast of Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) Financial Research Center, the tight situation of real estate credit will be improved, and GSP and green loans will become an important starting point for credit support to the real economy.
In addition, the cbcirc also proposed that banking institutions should meet the capital needs of moderately advanced investment in infrastructure, increase the investment of medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry, strengthen the financial support for “specialized and special new” enterprises, and strengthen the financial support for Rural Revitalization.
small and micro enterprises, green, science and technology are the focus of bank investment
The first executive meeting of the State Council after the central economic work conference focused on financial support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households. The meeting decided to convert the two monetary policies directly reaching the real economy into inclusive small and micro loan support tools and the management of re loan support plan for supporting agriculture and small businesses.
Zou LAN, director of the financial market department of the central bank, once introduced that from 2020 to October 2021, banks have delayed the repayment of principal and interest on loans of 14.4 trillion yuan, including supporting small, medium-sized and micro enterprises to delay the repayment of principal and interest of 11.8 trillion yuan and issuing inclusive small and micro credit loans of 9.1 trillion yuan.
“Under the background of downward pressure on China’s economy, this policy is a structural small and micro credit tool, which helps to improve the policy transmission efficiency, plays a role in accurately supporting small and micro enterprises, and can effectively alleviate the problem of difficult and expensive financing for small and micro enterprises.” Financial market analyst Zhou Maohua analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
21st Century Business Herald reporter learned from major banks that in 2022, in addition to increasing support for small and micro enterprises, banks will also focus on scientific and technological innovation, green development, manufacturing and other fields, and further consolidate their market position in combination with their respective advantages.
For example, China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) also proposes to design comprehensive financial solutions and supporting financial products according to the needs of urban renewal, and do a good job in comprehensive financial services for high-end manufacturing, major technological transformation projects, intelligent manufacturing projects and digital transformation; One belt, one road and another, is to build up a new competitive advantage in foreign trade, promote the construction of “one belt and one road” and speed up the development of specialized new enterprises and new industrial clusters, expand coverage of inclusive financial services, and help achieve the goal of carbon peak carbon neutralization.
In terms of scientific and technological innovation, “specialized and new” enterprises are expected to be the target customers for banks. Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) said that the bank would continue to increase financial support for scientific and technological innovation, expand the scale of equity investment, optimize credit supply and innovate exclusive products. So far, the bank has established cooperative relations with more than 2600 specialized new “little giant” enterprises, provided credit support to more than 1200 “little giant” enterprises, with a loan balance of nearly 20 billion yuan, and put forward a package of support policies from the aspects of customer classification, credit rating, credit management, credit authorization, guarantee methods, investment and loan linkage, etc.
“The implementation progress of the credit plan in the first quarter of 2022 is determined by 40%, and the loan is higher than that in the same period of 2021. All branches should avoid the idea of” waiting, relying and delaying “and try their best to complete the target task.” In terms of the rhythm of credit supply, the agricultural development bank is specific and clear.
As for the real estate market that the market pays more attention to, Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) said to strengthen risk management in key areas such as local government debt and real estate, China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) said to rely on CCB’s comprehensive housing leasing service platform to solve the pain points such as insufficient structural supply of Housing leasing, governance of old communities and villages in cities.
(21st Century Business Herald)
