Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. In the short term, the central bank’s working meeting is held. The prudent monetary policy should be flexible and moderate in the first place. Under the expectation of reasonable and abundant market liquidity and continued easing, the overall good support and boost are strong. Bargain hunting is still a good time for allocation. At the time of style change, it is suggested to focus on the allocation of undervalued blue chips.
US stocks rebounded yesterday and A-Shares opened slightly higher today. After the opening, the index fluctuated in the red market, but turned down randomly, and turned green in the session. Since then, subject stocks have performed well, and the Shenzhen composite index has performed relatively strongly under the recovery of the gem. Since then, the closing position of the index fluctuated yesterday, and the overall performance was stable. On the disk, household appliances led the rise, while computers, social services, non-ferrous metals and communications led the rise, while coal led the decline, while utilities, building decoration, real estate and building materials fell.
After the central economic work conference, the central bank held a work conference yesterday. This time, the central bank’s working meeting put the prudent monetary policy in the first place. Specifically, it refers to the comprehensive use of a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, enhance the stability of the growth of total credit, increase support for the real economy, and keep the growth of money supply and social financing scale basically match the growth of the economy. During the meeting, “maintaining a reasonable abundance of liquidity” has actually fully reflected the marginal easing trend under the stability of monetary policy. In fact, after the reduction of reserve requirement and LPR, the cycle of monetary easing has been started.
As we all know, the stock market is a barometer of money, especially loose monetary policy and good liquidity are the direct driving force for the good of the stock market. Therefore, under the general easing trend, the stock market will not be bad. Also based on this, under the previous good support of market fundamentals and the opening of the easing cycle, we continue to be optimistic about the market in the next year and the first quarter of the next year. In this process, if the index retreats, it is still a good time to consider bargain hunting allocation.
Back on the disk, the index has continued to rebound since November 10. While pulling up, blue chip heavyweights have made great contributions. Although there has been a correction recently, the overall performance is stable. Since mid December, subject stocks have fallen as a whole and ushered in a phased retreat, which is relatively weak as a whole. In addition, the recent collective decline of new energy and the continuous decline of high-end stocks have made it clear that the style shift of market high-low switching has been relatively clear. This conversion includes both the expectation of the opening of monetary easing cycle and the expectation of repairing the valuation of undervalued varieties, as well as the expectation of make-up.
Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the short-term correction under the overall upward trend. Under the support of steady growth and the opening of the easing cycle, the market as a whole still has the basis of support and boost. The callback as a whole can be regarded as a washing dish, and bargain hunting can still be considered for configuration. In terms of specific opportunities, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved sectors can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
(Jufeng Finance)
