Near the end of the year, the lithium sector finally collectively “returned blood”
On December 28, lithium stocks broke out. By the end of the day, the salt lake lithium extraction index rose 6.78%, and the lithium mine index rose 6.5%, becoming the most obvious plate on the day.
Among them, Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) with a total market value of more than 100 billion increased by more than 8% except for the rise limit of medium cap stocks such as Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) .
Prior to this, the sector has deviated for more than three months. On the one hand, the stock price has fallen continuously, and on the other hand, the fundamentals and corporate profit expectations have improved continuously.
Share price. Take Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) as an example, the high point at the end of August was 45.65 yuan, and the lowest fell to 27.85 yuan by the end of September. Although the trend of other peer companies lags behind relatively and most of them began to fall around mid September, there has never been a more obvious systematic rebound.
At the industry level, the prosperity of lithium salt industry is still improving. In mid September, the market price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China was about 150000 yuan / ton, which has risen to more than 260000 yuan / ton so far.
According to the data provided by Baichuan Yingfu, on December 27, the mainstream quotation range of China’s battery grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) market was between 260000-265000 yuan, and the average price rose to 262400 yuan / ton, up 5000 yuan / ton compared with yesterday’s price.
At this stage, China’s lithium salt products are in the “third round of price increase” this year. The current round of increase began in early December, and the cumulative increase is about 50000 yuan / ton.
The reasons driving the price rise include the decline of winter production and the double drive of year-end goods preparation.
“At the end of the year, some manufacturers entered the shutdown and maintenance stage, the output has been reduced, and the tight market supply situation continues; the stock mood of the operators is obvious, at the same time, the performance of state-owned enterprises is saturated, there is no export, there is less spot circulation on the market, and the supply is tight.” Baichuan Yingfu pointed out.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) nonferrous metals team pointed out that there is a significant difference between Q4 stock in 2021 and centralized stock at the end of previous years. The preparation cycle will be longer, but the quantity of single preparation will be reduced. Because 2021 is a hard supply shortage, there is no surplus to realize the usual definition of “large amount of goods preparation and centralized procurement”. In fact, the downstream procurement of the middle reaches hopes to purchase in large quantities, but at present, the spot stock in the market is small, and the objective conditions make it impossible for the purchaser to purchase in large quantities.
This also reflects the current situation of tight supply and demand of lithium salt products.
It should be noted that with the continuous increase of lithium carbonate market price, the next profit expectation of relevant enterprises needs to be revised.
Taking the lithium salt enterprises with imported spodumene as raw material as an example, including other costs such as lithium concentrate, soda ash, sulfuric acid and coal, the gross profit per ton is more than 100000 yuan.
In contrast, the gross profit of “integrated” ore lithium extraction enterprises with mine end layout and salt lake lithium extraction enterprises with cost advantages may reach about 200000 yuan.
It can be predicted that in the performance forecast for 2021 disclosed next, the net profit of lithium salt in the fourth quarter of this year will be significantly higher than that in the third quarter, especially the above two types of production enterprises.
From the trend of the secondary market on the 28th, the top gainers of individual stocks are mostly listed companies in Salt Lake Lithium Extraction and “integrated” lithium salt production.
However, it is still unknown whether the mutual deviation between the fundamentals and the trend of the secondary market since September can be reversed
(21st Century Business Herald)
