The real estate sector rose 1.23% this week, ranking fifth: the market continued to decline this week, with a decrease of 0.67%. The performance of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage and building materials was ahead. The real estate sector rose 1.23% for two consecutive weeks, ranking fifth among 28 industries this week. Recently, the sector has shown obvious excess returns. In terms of sector valuation, the PE and Pb valuations of the sector rebounded to 11.25x and 0.98x again this weekend; Relative to all A-share PE and Pb valuations, the discount ranges are 44% and 49% respectively. If excluding bank shares, the discount is 61% and 63% respectively. The relative valuation continues to rise. With the recent recovery of the sector, the sector valuation has been significantly repaired. In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers of the sector this week were Sanxiang Impression Co.Ltd(000863) , Beijing Airport High-Tech Park Co.Ltd(600463) , Sanxiang Impression Co.Ltd(000863) , Beijing Airport High-Tech Park Co.Ltd(600463) , Macrolink Culturaltainment Development Co.Ltd(000620) all of which had a market value of less than 10 billion. Among them, trading resumed on Beijing Airport High-Tech Park Co.Ltd(600463) 22 and the acquisition of semiconductor companies was terminated; The top five declines include Tibet Urban Development And Investment Co.Ltd(600773) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) . Affected by the weakening concept of lithium extraction from Salt Lake, Tibet Urban Development And Investment Co.Ltd(600773) benefited from the large increase of transition semiconductor in the early stage and has been corrected in the near future. In addition, the company announced the reduction plan of the second largest shareholder, Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) has fluctuated greatly in the near future. The company announced the passive reduction plan and project transfer plan of shareholders and received the inquiry letter from Shanghai Stock Exchange. The performance of major companies was differentiated this week, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) waishimao service, Oct, poly and other performance were ahead. Shimao service has been intensively repurchased recently, while the performance of Evergrande system and rongchuang system continues to be depressed.
The media reported that the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission encouraged financial institutions to support mergers and acquisitions, the three rounds of local auctions ended one after another, the one-day tour of Heilongjiang rescue documents, etc.: 1) the media reported that the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission encouraged financial institutions to support mergers and Acquisitions: on December 20, the media reported that insiders learned that the people’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently jointly issued a notice, Encourage banking financial institutions to provide financial support and services for mergers and acquisitions of risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises.; 2) Three rounds of earth shooting ended one after another:
The three rounds of land auction in Hangzhou, Wuhan and Tianjin have been closed one after another. 24 plots in Hangzhou have been capped and waged, with a ceiling rate of 69%. More than 90% of the base price in Wuhan has been closed, all the base price in Tianjin has been closed, 22 of 26 plots in Changsha have been closed, 9 of 12 plots in Changchun have been closed due to no enterprise registration, and the rate in Shenyang has also reached 70%; 3) One day tour of Heilongjiang city rescue documents: on December 20, the Department of housing and urban rural development of Heilongjiang province put forward a number of measures to do a good job in the growth of the real estate industry before the end of the year at the economic operation dispatching meeting of the real estate industry of the whole province, and further said that due to the city’s implementation of policies, we should further strengthen our work, jump to a higher level, so as to ensure that the work ends well this year and starts well next year. On the afternoon of the 21st, the article was removed from the official website of Heilongjiang provincial government.
The turnover of new houses in key cities fell for five weeks year-on-year, but the decline in the last two weeks was significantly narrowed: in terms of transactions, the turnover of new houses in key 26 cities was negative for the fifth consecutive week year-on-year, and the decline in the last two weeks remained slightly more than 10%, narrowed compared with the previous period, and from the absolute level, the weekly turnover was above the average annual level for two consecutive weeks. Cumulatively, it has increased by 10.0% since the beginning of the year, maintaining the downward channel. This week, the key first, second and third tier transactions fell again year-on-year. The performance of the key second tier has warmed up in the past two weeks, while the key third tier remained weak. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative year-on-year growth of the first, second and third tier has been 17.4% / 17.4% / 0.8% respectively, and the cumulative increase continues to fall. In terms of supply, the new supply of key 10 cities also decreased for five consecutive weeks year-on-year, with a cumulative decrease of – 2.0% since the beginning of the year. After the cumulative increase was negative, the decline expanded this week. As of the end of this week, the narrow de chemical cycle was 12.13 months, and the de chemical cycle continued to improve. In the past two weeks, the first-line supply has maintained a year-on-year increase, while the key second and third-line supply has continued to be depressed. The cumulative year-on-year since the beginning of the year has been 3.4% / 0.1% / – 14.0% respectively. Recently, the first-line performance has stabilized. As of the end of this week, the first, second and third line decontamination cycle has been 7.98/8.14/19.99 months, and the recent decontamination cycle has rebounded.
Maintain the “stronger than the big market” rating: in the short term, we maintain the judgment that the early policy has reached the bottom. 1) some cities may introduce industry bottom support policies under the background of urban policy implementation, and 2) the supply side and demand side capital are expected to be relaxed. At present, there is a strong financial support for high-quality real estate enterprises, the industry reshuffle may speed up, and the operation will be stable The advantages of central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and some high-quality private enterprises with strong operation ability are further highlighted. Although the share prices of some leading real estate enterprises have rebounded significantly recently, the valuation remains low. We maintain the recommendation: 1) high-quality leading enterprises and some private enterprises Vanke, poly, China Shipping (uncovered), zhaosnake (uncovered), China Resources (uncovered), etc.; 2) property related companies Biguiyuan service, Xuhui Yongsheng service and China Resources Vientiane life.
Risk tips: the epidemic development exceeded expectations, the regulation and credit policies exceeded expectations, the introduction of real estate tax exceeded expectations, and the sales recovery was less than expected.
（ China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) ）
