Since the second half of December, the main stock indexes in the A-share market have continued to shake and consolidate as a whole, but the stock positions of public and private institutions and stock indexes have shown the opposite “trend”.
According to the monitoring data of third-party institutions, the average stock positions of public and private institutions have rebounded in recent weeks, and there has been a relatively rare synchronous position increase since this year. As of last Friday, China’s partial equity public funds had increased their positions for seven consecutive weeks. From the current research and judgment of the latest strategies of many private placement companies, front-line private placement is still positive for the future market of A-Shares as a whole.
private placement positions return to a relatively high level this year
According to a stock private placement position monitoring data released by a third-party institution in China on December 27, as of December 17 (due to the lagging disclosure of the net value of private placement fund products and other reasons, the position measurement data is also relatively late), the average position of stock private placement was 76.88%, an increase of 1.12 percentage points over the previous week, which is the second consecutive week of position increase. Among them, there are 56.14% of private equity, with a position level of more than 80%. From the vertical comparison, as of December 17, the average position of private equity has risen to a relatively high level since this year, which is roughly close to the level at the beginning of January 2020.
In terms of the average positions of private placement institutions of different sizes, as of December 17, 10 billion private placement of stocks had increased positions for three consecutive weeks, with the largest increase in the groups of private placement institutions of different sizes. According to the data of the third-party institution, as of December 17, the private placement position index of 10 billion stocks was 80.07%, 1.9 percentage points higher than that of the previous week. Since November 26, the private placement of 10 billion stocks has significantly increased its position by 4.33 percentage points. After 11 weeks, it has returned to the absolute high of “more than 80%. At present, the private placement of 10 billion stocks with positions of more than 80%, accounting for 63.87%.
no soft hand in 7 weeks of public offering
In terms of public funds, the weekly position calculation report provided by Haomai fund to China Securities News · China Securities Taurus reporter on December 27 shows that last week (December 20-24), China’s partial equity funds increased their positions slightly by 1.67 percentage points, and the average position as of December 24 was 67.58%. Among them, the positions of equity funds increased by 1.53 percentage points and the positions of standard hybrid funds increased by 1.69 percentage points. As of December 24, the average positions were 86.73% and 65.03% respectively. The calculation data also shows that the top three industries in the allocation proportion of public offering partial equity funds last week were medicine, food and beverage and non-ferrous metals, with allocation positions of 5.68%, 4.47% and 4.42% respectively; The three industries with the lowest allocation proportion are real estate, construction and media, with allocation positions of 0.37%, 0.45% and 0.54% respectively.
It is worth noting that the agency’s historical calculation data show that as of last Friday, China’s public offering partial equity funds have increased their positions for seven consecutive weeks. In the past seven weeks, the average positions of partial equity public funds increased by 1.67, 0.88, 2.95, 1.73, 1.37, 1.09 and 3.54 percentage points respectively. In two trading weeks, positions rose rapidly by more than 2 percentage points. Compared with the past few years, the average position of public offering partial equity funds is 67.58%, which is generally at a historical high level.
the market outlook is still relatively positive
While public and private equity institutions have stepped up their positions recently, combined with the recent macro fundamentals and other factors, the front-line private equity institutions continue to actively study and judge the future market of A-Shares as a whole.
Shi Feng asset said that for the overall prediction of A-Shares next year, the tone was “loose wind has begun, structural bull is coming again”. The agency believes that at present, China’s economy is facing the transformation from high growth rate to high-quality development. Under the guidance of stable growth, the loose expectation of money and finance has gradually increased, and the policy environment is expected to shift back to the direction of wide money and credit, which will be a relatively favorable macro environment for the equity market. On the whole, the overall performance of the A-share market next year is expected to be better than this year, and the “market structure” of the market is expected to spread. In terms of specific investment structure, the agency is optimistic about the diffusion of double carbon market, as well as investment directions such as mass consumer goods and industrial upgrading.
In the short-term market research and judgment, Mingyu assets said that since last week, the global covid-19 epidemic has been disturbed again, and economic activities have been affected to a certain extent. In the short term, it is expected that the A-share market will still reflect the trend of fundamentals and policies, and the volatility may increase. It should be noted that at present, steady growth has become the consensus of the market, and the expectation of improving infrastructure development is enhanced. From the internal structure of the market, there are still opportunities for undervalued targets related to real estate, building materials and construction related to the real estate industry chain. The pharmaceutical sector represented by traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, the consumer electronics and automobile intelligent sector with a valuation at the bottom, as well as the photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power and new energy vehicle industry chain, are still worthy of further gold digging.
(China Securities Journal)
