How difficult is it to invest this year? Jiang Chao’s initial investment performance may have given investors a lot of “psychological massage”.
recently, the well-known economist Jiang Chao’s failure in transformation investment performance triggered a heated discussion.
On February 18 this year, Jiang Chao announced his resignation Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) to join Zhongtai asset management. On April 12, the first product under his management was established. As of December 20, the unit net value of the product was 0.8076 yuan, with a floating loss of 19.24% in eight months.
For the concern of the market, China Thailand asset management responded to the brokerage China, saying: “under the principle of investor appropriateness, the specific information of private placement products is not public information. However, our company recognizes that investment is a long-term thing, and also strives to provide an environment matching this cognition for investment managers and fund managers.”
According to the analysis of insiders, 2021, which is about to pass, is a year to test concentration and patience. It is not only Jiang Chao who has just begun to test water management products, but also the performance of many public offering and private placement leaders with brilliant achievements in the past is not ideal this year. On the road of investment, the future of ups and downs will continue. Investors should adhere to the concept of long-term ism. Time is a friend of value investors, and time will always stand on the side of a good company.
In December 27th, released his outlook on China’s economy and capital market in 2022 on his personal official account. Jiang Chao quickly painted the industry. The last update of the official account was in November 1st, nearly two months ago.
In this magnificent article of nearly 10000 words, Jiang Chao made it clear that looking forward to 2022, the GDP growth rate is expected to be about 5%, while the growth rate of broad money and social finance balance is still about 8-10%. It is difficult to fundamentally change the situation of excessive money. In the context of non speculation in housing and housing, the over issued currency is expected to flow into the capital market.
Jiang Chao also said that this is also the most important reason why he chose to invest from research transformation. He made a long-term judgment and believed that the main opportunity in the next 10 or even 20 years lies in China’s capital market.
the withdrawal of private placement products managed by Jiang Chao is hot
Jiang Chao is a doctor of quantitative economics of Tsinghua University. He has been engaged in macro and bond research for 15 years. In his career, he has repeatedly won the first place in macro and fixed income research selected by new wealth. Before transformation investment, he served as deputy director and chief economist of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) research Institute.
On February 18 this year, Jiang Chao announced his resignation Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) and joined Zhongtai asset management. On April 12, the first product under his management, Zhongtai supernova 1, was established.
However, under the structural market of medicine, food and beverage, home appliances and other blue chips falling continuously this year and the rise of new energy and cycle, the performance of Jiang Chao’s product, which is only a preliminary water test investment, is not ideal. The data show that as of December 20, the unit net value of the product was 0.8076 yuan, with a floating loss of 19.24% in eight months.
However, this is actually a private placement product, and the establishment scale is not large. According to public data, the custodian of Zhongtai supernova 1 is China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , the participation threshold is 1 million yuan, and the establishment scale is 94 million yuan, of which Zhongtai asset management company invested 13 million yuan.
in response to the concerns of the market, China Thailand asset management responded to the brokerage China, saying: “under the principle of investor appropriateness, the specific information of private placement products is not public information. However, our company recognizes that investment is a long-term thing, and also strives to provide an environment matching this cognition for investment managers and fund managers.”
The reason why it has attracted wide attention in the market is that Jiang Chao himself is a real big man in his career of seller research. He has repeatedly won the first place in the field of macro research and fixed income in the new wealth selection. In addition, he is also quite good at writing articles. Previously, many macro analysis articles have been swiped in the industry.
In 2006, Jiang Chao won the first place in the research team of new wealth bonds during his tenure in Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) ; During his tenure in Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , he won the first place in the macroeconomic research group in 2013 and 2014 respectively. Also in 2014, Jiang Chao won the first place in the fixed income research team; In 2015, Jiang Chao continued to win the first place in fixed income research; In 2016, it won the first place in macroeconomic research.
Under the high expectation, it also makes people feel the difference between high research level and real investment practice.
in fact, Jiang Chao himself had a premonition of the difficulty of transforming the buyer. In June this year, when asked about the difficulties in switching from macro research to investment, Jiang Chao admitted: “I have to have a relatively achievable goal. My goal is to overcome currency growth, that is, currency over issuance. A little higher than it, so as to ensure that I will not be killed by currency over issuance.”
Jiang Chao also said that he wanted to change his career to invest for a long time. He had read the report for a long time. At first, he looked at everything, hoping to find a dark horse. Later, he found it difficult, so it was not necessary. In fact, it is to do what you can do, find Chinese high-quality enterprises, find those “desert flowers” and growth stocks. As long as these good enterprises are not eliminated, it is good to allocate their assets.
Wanzi Xiongwen analyzes the economy next year and is optimistic about manufacturing and large consumption
Although investment is not easy, Jiang Chao is still the big man in research.
The official account of Jiang Chao’s personal investment, , “Jiang Chao’s investment horizon” shows that in December 27th, Jiang Chao released a 9000 word long article to look forward to the 2022 China’s economy and capital market.
In this latest tweet, Jiang Chao summed up his latest judgment on the economic situation with eight words “economic restart, end of inflation”. In his opinion, the outbreak of covid-19 has been nearly two years, and it is believed that 2022 is expected to come to an end. The past two years have witnessed an unprecedented short-term surge in commodity prices, but I believe this phenomenon will not last for a long time. Commodity inflation in 2022 should come to an end. China’s inflation structure may change in 2022, and PPI will fall sharply, but CPI will rise slightly. The overall inflation pressure should be weaker than that in 2021, because the decline of PPI should far exceed the potential increase of CPI.
“Therefore, I conclude in eight words that the economic restart and inflation will end. If these judgments are true, the capital market next year should still be very attractive.” Jiang Chao wrote.
If we understand China’s economic structure from the perspective of currency creation, what is the hope of restarting in 2022? Jiang Chao believes that it still lies in the manufacturing industry and the large consumer industry that is expected to improve in 2022. Compared with the continuous downturn of the real estate market, the manufacturing industry performed prominently in 2021. Thanks to the effective control of the epidemic in China, China’s exports increased significantly in 2021, driving the manufacturing profits to increase by more than 30%, which also helps to support the continued high growth of manufacturing investment in 2022.
In addition, in the manufacturing industry, some high-tech industries are very eye-catching. In the first 10 months of 2021, the output growth rate of new energy vehicles is close to 200%, the output growth rate of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries is more than 50%, and the output growth rate of integrated circuits, metal cutting machine tools and microcomputers is about 30%. Reflected in the investment data, the investment growth rate of high-tech industries representing these industries was as high as 20.4% in October. Science and technology has become an important driving force for economic growth, and green loans are expected to help the development of science and technology industry.
Jiang Chao also made it clear that looking forward to 2022, the GDP growth rate is expected to be about 5%, while the growth rate of broad money and social finance balance is still about 8-10%, so it is difficult to fundamentally change the situation of excessive money. In the context of non speculation in housing and housing, the over issued currency is expected to flow into the capital market. “This is also one of the most important reasons why I choose to invest from research transformation. I made a long-term judgment and believe that the main opportunity in the next 10 or even 20 years lies in China’s capital market.”
Jiang Chao said, “In the past, we invested money in the real estate market to stimulate China’s industrial economy. At the same time, the wealth of residents mainly depended on the appreciation of real estate. However, with the end of the demographic dividend and the middle and late stage of urbanization, this historical process is coming to an end. We are establishing a new economic cycle, investing money in the capital market and excellent manufacturing and consumption enterprises. ”
“Therefore, based on this judgment, I think China’s capital market will usher in a long-term prosperous era in the future. This year’s market is a structural market, partly due to the tightening of currency, which will encounter transformation pains in the process of clearing out the old real estate economy. However, with the old and new, new hopes are emerging. I believe that the epidemic will end and the economy will restart, China’s capital market has long been full of hope. ” Jiang Chao said.
Investment circle fryer! Famous economists’ transformation “investment” suffered a huge loss of nearly 20% in 8 months!
(brokerage China)
