“Cross year agitation” market is still worth looking forward to
Under the RRR reduction, the overall performance of the market is not outstanding. In December, there were changes in the macro level that were traditionally conducive to the upward market, such as the reduction of reserve requirements, but the market performance was not strong. The reduction of one-year LPR on Monday did not bring strong market performance. However, the consumption sector and the steady growth sector have a relatively bright performance.
Why did the “strong policy” not bring the rise of the market? The policy exceeding expectations has also aroused the market’s concern about whether the economy is facing the pressure exceeding expectations. The market is not only reflecting the benefits of the policy, but also digesting the uncertainty of the economy; The governance of “fake foreign capital” and the changes in China US relations have also disturbed the market.
“Cross year agitation” market is still worth looking forward to. On the one hand, after setting the macro tone, we may see more specific policies in the future. Some leading economic indicators, including social finance, may also improve. With the appearance of policy effectiveness and the release of liquidity, the logic of restless market is still established. On the other hand, the impact of cracking down on “fake foreign investment” is limited, and the funds going north may maintain the trend of inflow in the future.
The market style is gradually shifting to consumption
The market style is gradually switching to consumption. Recently, the transaction heat of the consumer sector has increased significantly, and the turnover rate has increased significantly. On the one hand, consumption is expected to become the main force of this round of restless market; On the other hand, the economy is facing downward pressure, the performance stability advantage of the consumer sector is expected to be highlighted again, and the market style is expected to return to consumption.
Under the style switching, the consumption leader will benefit first. In the interpretation of consumption style, the leader is often the most prominent, and the leader’s performance is more deterministic and favored by the market; In recent years, the issuance of public funds has been hot and the number of large funds with more than 10 billion has increased, which has a higher preference for the allocation of leading funds, which is also conducive to the rise of leading stock prices to a certain extent.
More consumer stimulus policies are expected in the future. Consumption is the weakest sector in China’s current economic performance. Under economic pressure, it is expected to see more consumption stimulus policies in the future. It mainly includes two directions: first, rural durable consumer goods. There is still room for further improvement in the ownership of rural durable consumer goods in China, including air conditioners, cars, computers, etc. Second, recreational consumption such as culture and entertainment, and stimulus policies such as consumption vouchers are expected to be introduced.
The endogenous power of consumption is also expected to recover next year
Next year’s epidemic prevention and control is expected to see the dawn. From the data of South Africa and other places, although Omicron spread rapidly, the death toll did not rise significantly. Next year, with the continuous promotion of vaccines and specific drugs, the dawn of the end of the epidemic may appear. Recently, Zhang Wenhong and who also expressed optimism about the end of the epidemic next year.
The regression of the epidemic is expected to enhance residents’ willingness to consume. The uncertainty of the epidemic has led to a decline in residents’ willingness to consume and an increase in their willingness to save, which is reflected in China, the United States and other places. Next year, as the epidemic subsides, residents’ willingness to consume is expected to gradually rise. The continuous promotion of common prosperity will also further release the consumption potential.
The industry configuration direction suggests that we should focus on Baijiu, medicine, household appliances and consumer goods. The market will be switched to consumption, leading the first to benefit from Baijiu and pharmaceutical industries. The home appliance, automobile and other industries that are most likely to benefit from the consumption stimulus policy also deserve attention. Some mass consumer goods industries with price increases also deserve attention.
In addition to consumption, the steady growth direction also deserves attention. On the one hand, with the financial force, traditional infrastructure is still an important starting point for steady growth, and the prosperity of the sector is expected to rise. It is suggested to pay attention to building materials, construction, machinery and other industries; On the other hand, new energy infrastructure represented by photovoltaic and wind power will also become the key force area of steady growth policy.
Risk analysis: the level of economic growth was significantly lower than expected, and the covid-19 epidemic worsened than expected.
