1. The credit contracted in 21 years, the residual liquidity decreased, and the overall valuation of A-Shares decreased; After 22 years of credit expansion, the remaining liquidity was more abundant, and the valuation of A-Shares was supported as a whole.
2. The overall profit of non-financial A-Shares fell in the first half of the year (Q1 single quarter: 7.7%, Q2 single quarter: – 7.4%), and stabilized in the second half of the year (Q3 single quarter: 3.1%, Q4 single quarter: 11.5%).
3. In the next six months, in the two-dimensional framework of credit profit, ① credit will gradually expand; ② Profit decline; 3. The valuation of stocks and bonds is not cheap in the vicinity of the mean value, which corresponds to the early stage of credit expansion, the index range shocks, and the current adjustment will open the space for spring restlessness. The two quarter of spring may be readjust again after the agitation.
4. In the middle of the year, in the two-dimensional framework of credit profit, ① credit continues to expand; ② Profits bottomed out and rebounded; ③ The stock bond yield difference may fall back to the extremely cheap position of – 2x standard deviation; ④ High risk appetite before the “20th National Congress” – the index may have index level opportunities in the middle of the year, and positions may become winners and losers at this stage.
5, the core assets of stable performance (such as Baijiu, medicine), its future excess earnings sensitivity to the current valuation is high. The end of 18, the middle of 19 and the beginning of 20 in April are the extremely cheap position of core assets. In February, mid February is the most expensive position of core assets.
6. The excess return of the financial and real estate chain basically depends on the strength of credit expansion, that is, whether to stimulate real estate. In retrospect, since the proposal of no speculation in real estate in 16 years, there have been two waves of stimulating real estate, namely 19q1 and 20q2q3. The common background is that after the overall decline in exports, manufacturing and employment, the logic is that overall stability takes precedence over no speculation in real estate. Therefore, objectively speaking, after the sharp decline of exports in 22 years, there may be periodic changes in the financial and real estate chain β， However, policy dependent dilemma reversal is not our main recommended direction.
7. In the case that the above two types of large cap stocks (Baima core assets, finance and real estate chain) do not have trend opportunities for 22 years, it is expected that the dominant style of small and medium cap stocks has not ended. The style of small cap stocks in the future mainly depends on the alternative promotion of industrial trends from new energy to 5g application end.
8. One of the core configuration ideas: hard technology track: first, it is difficult to win, and it is necessary to further tap small and medium-sized companies in the track with good industrial trend; Second, price increases are difficult to sustain, More pure quantity logic (not driven by price change) is recommended, and quantity logic focuses on military industry, new energy vehicles (batteries, parts, electronics and whole vehicles), large new energy bases (wind, light, storage and operators), and semiconductors (equipment and materials). In addition, if there is no industry level lower than expected, the phased adjustment of the boom track is generally 15%. At present, it is at the lower edge of the adjustment. It is expected that the restlessness in the spring of 22 may still be the core attack direction.
9. The second core allocation idea: recommend the dilemma reversal direction that does not depend on the policy, such as the necessary food with reversed cost dilemma (ppi-cpi inflection point), pork with reversed price dilemma, and traditional cars and parts with reversed inventory cycle dilemma.
10. A new main line to focus on in 2022: 5g application end, which may include new infrastructure such as yuancosmos, Internet of vehicles, energy Internet of things, industrial Internet of things and so on.
11. Fairy tale of 2022: when more scarce high prosperity meets more abundant liquidity – the back test found that the direction pursued by more abundant residual liquidity is [accelerated growth] ≈ [sustained high growth] ≈ [decelerating growth – low decline] > [dilemma reversal] > [decelerating growth – high decline] > [low-speed stability]. See page ppt68 for detailed industry location related to this.
Risk tips: changes in overseas epidemic situation, changes in monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and changes in China’s policy
