The US dollar index fell, the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed, the Ted interest rate spread narrowed, and China’s capital was loose as a whole
Last week (20211220-20211224), the US dollar index fell, the interest rate gap between China and the United States narrowed, the nominal interest rate of US bonds increased, and the real interest rate remained volatile, which implied the rise of inflation expectations. Overseas, the credit spreads of US corporate bonds have narrowed, Ted spreads have narrowed, and US financial liquidity is still abundant; For China, inter-bank funds are generally loose, liquidity stratification first intensifies and then eases, term spreads (10Y – 1y) narrow, and credit spreads widen. In terms of transaction heat, the transaction heat of media, power and utilities, coal, construction, real estate, automobile and other industries is at a historically high level, among which the fluctuation level of power and utilities is also at a historically high level. In terms of research, electronics, nonferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, banking, medicine, computer and other sectors rank first.
Northward allocation disk inflow, trading disk outflow slightly, northward Chinese capital continues to sell after the “new regulations” revision date
Last week (20211220-20211223), the northward allocation market bought a net 2.894 billion yuan and the trading market sold 864 million yuan. On a daily basis, the configuration disk chooses to sell on Tuesday (20211221) and buy on other trading days; In the northbound trading on Monday (20211220) and Wednesday (20211222), it chose to sell, and net bought in the other trading days. In the industry, the differences between the trading plate and the configuration plate have increased. The consensus is to buy new power, chemical industry, electronics, electric power and public utilities, and sell food and beverage, banking, building materials and other industries at the same time. In terms of style, both configuration / trading plates buy the medium cap growth plate and sell the small and medium cap value plate, while there are differences in other plates. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the allocation board bought Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) 1.235 billion yuan and 66 million yuan respectively, and sold Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 197 million yuan. In terms of market value, the allocation disk last week mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the sectors of electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. It is worth mentioning that last week, Beishang Chinese capital continued to sell a shares, with an overall sales of 3.25 billion yuan, mainly net sales of new power, electronics, nonferrous metals, non-bank, household appliances and other sectors.
The activity of the two financial sectors fell, mainly buying electricity, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, petroleum and petrochemical, media, banking and other sectors
Last week (20211220-20211224), the two financial activities continued to decline, still at a low level in the year, with an overall sales of 11.104 billion yuan, mainly buying electricity, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, petroleum and petrochemical, media, banking and other sectors, and selling electronics, nonferrous metals, chemicals, computers, military industry, medicine and other sectors. In terms of style, Liangrong buys small cap value plates and sells other style plates.
Public offering positions have increased, individual investors have begun to subscribe, and wide-based ETFs mainly held by institutions are still heavily subscribed
Last week (20211220-20211224), the position of active partial stock fund increased. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, it mainly increased the position of Dianxin, chemical industry, machinery, nonferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemical, coal, steel and other sectors, and mainly reduced the position of food and beverage, medicine, household appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, real estate, building materials and other sectors. Last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions continued to be heavily subscribed, and they were still dominated by wide base; The stock ETF mainly held by individuals is continuously subscribed, which means that individuals may choose to subscribe for funds. By industry, among ETFs mainly held by individuals, ETFs related to financial and real estate, medicine, new energy, cycle and other sectors were purchased, and ETFs related to military industry, media and other sectors were redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its debt side (individual) is that there are differences between the old and new energy sectors and the large consumption sector. There are great differences between the public offering and its main rival (northward allocation) in construction, electronics, real estate and some consumer sectors (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, household appliances and light industry). For trend traders, Liangrong expressed its preference for power, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and old energy (coal, petroleum and petrochemical) sectors; Northward trading mainly bought new energy industry chain, power sector, some technology and consumption sectors. It is worth mentioning that, at present, while the home appliance, construction, light industry and other sectors are reduced by the northbound trading, active stock base and two finance, the long-term funds represented by the northbound allocation are still choosing to buy. Overall, the overall consensus of the current market continues to decline, and the purchase consensus of various investors in the power and utilities sector is high. However, it should be noted that the trading heat and volatility level of the above sectors are also at a relatively high level in history, which means that the power and utilities sector may be gradually entering the overheated range at the short-term trading level. In addition, Beishang Chinese capital is still selling a shares, and it is mainly concentrated in the heavy position plate of Beishang Chinese capital / the main net buying plate since 2021, which means that the impact of the “new regulations” may continue. Considering the potential external risks (real interest rate of US bonds, RMB exchange rate, etc.), the probability of sharp fluctuation of funds is still rising.
Risk tips:
Measurement error.
