Key investment points:
Macro view: 1. There is a trend change in the monetary and fiscal policy of the United States to deal with the epidemic. 2. In the past, the United States hedged the demand impact caused by the epidemic through monetary and fiscal policies, but the supply side impact has shown significant negative externalities and affected the sustained recovery of the U.S. economy. With the development of time and the epidemic, the US economic policy is expected to shift from stimulating demand in the past to stimulating supply recovery and curbing inflation. This new economic policy shift will be verified in this round of global covid-19 epidemic development, and will affect the changes in the global economic structure to a certain extent, which is mainly reflected in the impact of U.S. – driven liquidity and aggregate demand convergence. 2. During the epidemic cycle, China’s economic policy focuses on coping with overseas shocks, and takes this time window to accelerate the adjustment of China’s economic structure. With overseas shocks, especially the gradual weakening of inflation pressure driven by the United States, China’s economic policy will return to the long-term sustainable stability framework.
Market view: 1. Under the background of anti inflation in the United States and steady growth in China, the core asset style is established. China’s core assets have become the best choice for global asset allocation. 2. In the process of restoring stability of China’s real estate, long-term interest rates rise, commodities at the front of the real estate chain rise, and overseas commodities fall in the process of anti inflation in the United States.
Trading strategy: 1. Be optimistic about the CSI 300 index and A50 Index, and pay attention to the risk of beta and small and medium-sized stocks caused by style deviation. 2. 2. Optimistic about heavy foreign stocks; We are optimistic about leading companies in food and beverage, medicine, real estate, consumer electronics, computers, machinery, chemicals and media, and pay attention to soft technology and automotive intelligence. 3. Optimistic about the repair of Hong Kong stock Internet Index and the long-term upward trend of Nasdaq 100.
Market resumption: this week, the overall performance of the sector continued to weaken. In addition to consumption and stable style rising against the trend, all sectors fell. Consumption style led the rise by 1.07%, and stable style rose by 0.36%; Financial style, cyclical style and growth style decreased by 1.55%, 2.63% and 4.24% respectively. Most of the Shenwan level industries fell, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage and building materials leading the increase, with 6.56%, 3.76% and 2.37% respectively; Electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals and iron and steel industries led the decline, down 7.37%, 5.13% and 3.99% respectively. In terms of valuation, the overall industry valuation this week has less fluctuation than that of last week, the valuation of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry has increased, and the valuation of electrical equipment industry has fallen first. The PE level of automobile, food and beverage and electrical equipment industries ranks in the forefront of the market, and the valuation level of textile and garment, real estate and non-ferrous metal industries still lags far behind the market.
Index performance: the market fluctuated downward this week, and most of the main indexes fell. All a, CSI 300, CSI 500, gem index, Kechuang 50 and Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.03%, 0.67%, 0.49%, 4.00% and 0.39% respectively; Only SSE 50 rose slightly by 0.35%.
