Industry configuration this week:
Over allocation: building materials, automobiles, food and beverage, securities companies, military industry, communications and electronics
Standard configuration: media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, steel, computer, medicine, machinery, banking, real estate, mining, light industry, chemical industry, electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals
Low allocation: leisure service and transportation
Performance of industry allocation last week: the absolute return of the portfolio since the beginning of the year is 64.38%, which is 66.81% relative to the excess return of CSI 300.
Valuation: CSI 300iape is above the 60th percentile and CSI 300pb is above the 50th percentile. Shanghai IAPE is close to the 40th percentile, Shanghai Pb is close to the 30th percentile, Shanghai 50iape is above the 60th percentile, and Shanghai 50pb is below the 40th percentile line. IAPE on GEM is close to the 80th percentile and Pb on GEM is close to the 90th percentile.
The allocation value of stocks relative to bonds is still dominant. Shenwan industry fell more and rose less, among which agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, building materials, commerce and retail, real estate and other industries led the increase.
Combined with Pb and expected roe, photovoltaic, vaccine, phosphorus chemical industry, innovative drugs, new energy, Internet of things, specialized and special new sectors have better cost performance. Combined with PEG and expected g, the prosperity of photovoltaic, biological vaccine, new energy, aerospace equipment, lithium battery, cro and other sectors is better.
Money & Interest Rate: the LPR was lowered by “asymmetric interest rate cut” and the “steady growth” tool was gradually implemented
upper reaches
IEA inventories fell more than expected and international oil prices rose sharply
Coal prices continue to fall, and coking coal is relatively strong
Aluminum prices strengthened and lithium prices continued to rise
Iron ore prices rebounded and inventories fell for the first time
middle reaches
Steel output continues to fall, and demand turns weak
The demand side of photovoltaic gradually recovered and the tension between supply and demand eased
The cement index rose slightly and the valuation is expected to be repaired
Soda ash market prices continued to decline
The shipping consolidation index continued to reach a new high, and the express delivery entered the off-season
downstream
Financial support for real estate enterprises
The valuation of household appliances is at a historically low level
With the Spring Festival approaching, Baijiu is in the tide of price rise.
TMT
Electronics: Huawei releases folding screen mobile phone
Computer: Huawei released Hongmeng system intelligence and big data to support the improvement of the tax system
Media: Tencent music has entered the meta universe, and tiktok has the largest number of visitors
Risk tips: the risk of macroeconomic failure to meet expectations, the risk of monetary policy tightening beyond expectations, the risk of regulatory policy exceeding expectations, the risk of industry prosperity failing to meet expectations, and the risk of stagflation
