Crude oil futures rose again, approaching the highest point in 14 years.
In the morning of March 7, Brent crude oil futures rose sharply by US $20 / barrel, reaching a high of US $139.1/barrel, WTI crude oil futures reached US $130.5/barrel, and the two major crude oil futures prices both refreshed their highest values since 2008.
In 2008, the highest crude oil prices of WTI and Brent exceeded 140 US dollars / barrel, approaching 150 US dollars / barrel, creating the highest level ever.
Market analysis pointed out that the energy sanctions against Russia, a major oil producer, will bring a huge gap in global energy supply, while Iran’s crude oil export has not been lifted. Under the condition of relative shortage of idle crude oil production capacity in the world, the rise of oil and gas prices will be inevitable.
international oil prices rise sharply again
On the afternoon of March 7, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures fell to about $125 / barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil fell to about $128 / barrel. Even at this level, the oil price has increased by more than 50% compared with the level at the beginning of the year.
In terms of news, the US government said that it had discussed with its European allies the plan to ban oil imports from Russia, which has brought new stimulus to the already tense crude oil market. Prior to this, the United States and its European allies imposed a number of sanctions on Russia, but did not prohibit oil and gas transactions with Russia.
Since the end of last year, the global demand for crude oil has continued to grow, but OPEC + has continued to increase production slowly, which has increased the gap in the crude oil market instead of decreasing; Recently, Russia has encountered multiple sanctions, which has led to difficulties in its energy export and exacerbated the tension in the global crude oil market.
In order to cope with the continuous rise of oil prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United States and other crude oil consuming countries jointly released the strategic reserves of crude oil, but the total volume of 60 million barrels did not play a significant role in the market, and the rise of oil prices remained.
Mike Muller, Asia director of commodity operator Vitol group, pointed out that at present, the global standby crude oil production capacity and crude oil inventory are in a shortage state, and the high oil price caused by the geopolitical crisis will damage the global crude oil demand.
Xi Jiarui, a crude oil analyst at jinlianchuang, said that the panic in the crude oil market has continued to grow recently. The risk aversion has led to the continuous withdrawal of funds and turned to the gold market in order to avoid risks and increase value. From the perspective of the funds left in the floor, supported by geopolitical factors, the short positions retreated rapidly, while the long positions increased significantly, indicating the high bullish sentiment in the market.
As of the week of March 1, the total position of WTI crude oil futures continued to decline significantly for three weeks, while the short position fell for five consecutive weeks, and the long and net positions stopped falling and rebounded.
European natural gas prices soared again. On March 7, the Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas futures, as the wind vane of European natural gas prices, climbed to a record high of 345 euros / MW. Over the past two years, TTF benchmark natural gas futures prices have mostly remained below 20 euros / MWh.
Xi Jiarui pointed out that the recent geopolitical conflict is increasing global economic risks, and the rise in the prices of crude oil and other commodities will further exacerbate the global inflationary pressure.
Russian crude oil exports affect the global market
As one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil and natural gas, Russia’s crude oil export is facing many obstacles, which has further led to concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply in the international market.
Recently, Urals crude oil, Russia’s main export crude oil, has continued to decline in the spot Brent discount, and its sales in the international market have been frustrated repeatedly.
Although European and American countries did not directly sanction Russia’s energy exports, financial means and asset freeze also affected the country’s energy export transactions. Xi Jiarui said that recently, Russia’s energy exports have encountered difficulties in payment and ship supply. Even if the Russian oil price is far lower than the benchmark Brent crude oil price, it is difficult to clinch a deal, and the market’s concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply are escalating.
So far, a number of international energy giants, including BP, Statoil, shell and ExxonMobil, have announced that they will withdraw their project investment in Russia, and total energy has also said that it will no longer provide funds for the development of new projects in Russia.
The discounted ural crude oil attracts European oil giants to purchase. According to the data released by S & P global Platts, shell recently purchased a batch of Ural crude oil shipments, and the discount of this batch of Ural crude oil to spot Brent reached US $28.5/barrel.
Shell said that the batch of Russian crude oil was purchased by its refineries and chemical plants to continue production and ensure the supply of basic fuels and products.
On the other hand, with the rise of international oil prices, Saudi Arabian national oil company (Saudi Aramco) recently raised the price of its export crude oil. Among them, the price of Arab light crude oil sent to Asia in April increased by US $2.15 per barrel, and the price sent to America and Europe increased by US $1 and US $1.7 per barrel respectively.
Pan Xiang, a researcher at Huatai futures, pointed out that the return of Iranian crude oil to the market is the most effective way to cool the current oil market. Its oil production recovery space is 1.5 million barrels / day and its export is 2 million barrels / day; If Iran’s crude oil sanctions can be successfully lifted, it will have a more obvious easing effect on oil prices.
At present, there is news of progress in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States, but it is still unknown when Iranian crude oil can be released for export. Even if Iran’s crude oil is finally released, it will take several months for the country to achieve a significant increase in crude oil exports.
With the rise of international oil prices, the stocks of major oil and gas producers continued to rise. As of the afternoon closing of March 7, Hong Kong stocks Petrochina Company Limited(601857) (00857. HK) rose 4.44% to HK $4.47 per share, a new high in more than two years. CNOOC (0883. HK) rose to HK $10.66 per share, up more than 35% in the past six months.
Saudi Aramco’s share price, listed on the Riyadh stock exchange in Saudi Arabia, rose as high as 45.9 Saudi Riyal / share, setting a new high since its listing and rising nearly 30% in the past six months. ExxonMobil shares rose to $84.09 a share, up 11% from the trough on February 24; Chevron shares rose to $158.65 a share, up nearly 15% in the past month.
