The economy is running at a low level. The credit easing economy waiting for the first quarter is still running at a low level. The month on month growth rate of industrial production is about 0.3%, which belongs to a low area. The productivity of high energy consuming industries such as steel and nonferrous metals is low, which is affected by the winter environmental protection and the Winter Olympic Games. However, the relevant indicators of real estate show signs of bottoming out and rebound, and the driving force for the economy to decline again is not large. The bank’s impact on the loan line in December led to a sharp decline in the interest rate of the bill market. It is expected that the physical demand in December is still slow. However, we believe that there is a great possibility of monetary policy volume in the first quarter. Under the condition of steady growth, the volume of money and credit can be expected. Last week, concerns about the covid-19 epidemic weakened. For the supply side constraints worried about the market, the constraints in the first quarter of 2022 were significantly weakened. Based on this, although the economy in the first quarter is not ideal, monetary easing may exceed expectations, driving the economy to bottom up. This stage is more conducive to risky assets.
The short-term interest rate is close to zero due to the bill impulse, and the bill cash discount interest rate is significantly lower, and the short-term interest rate is close to zero. There are two main reasons for the near zero interest rate of transfer notes. First, under the downward pressure of the economy and the disturbance of the epidemic, enterprises’ demand for credit is weak. The second aspect is the insufficient willingness of banks to lend and the possible post lending plan. The concentrated demand for bills at the end of the year is likely to mean that the credit situation will be better in the first quarter of next year, and the policy expectations of wide currency and credit, support for medium and high-end manufacturing and small, medium and micro enterprises in the first half of next year are strong.
The central bank and the cbcirc encourage real estate enterprises to acquire high-quality projects with problems. On the one hand, this policy is to increase the ability of some real estate enterprises to deal with assets, on the other hand, it is for the integration of the real estate industry. In the future, the policy orientation probability still only supports the steady development of the real estate industry to meet the rigid demand and reasonable improvement demand.
The overall decline of market interest rate and the overall decline of bond yield except for the one-year term. The RRR reduction is superimposed on the interest rate cut this week to maintain relatively ample liquidity, which is good for the bond market. The early issuance of special bonds next year will disturb the capital. The market is still waiting for fundamental changes. Bond prices may fluctuate in the short term and may still decline in the long term.
Prices continued to fall, prices continued to decline slightly last week, pork prices picked up over the weekend and vegetable prices fell. In terms of pork, with the further cooling of the weather and the arrival of the peak consumption season at the end of the year, pig prices are expected to strengthen slightly in late December. In terms of vegetables, the supply of vegetables remained abundant. Due to the repeated epidemic, it was relatively difficult for some areas to get in and out, and the consumption decreased. The weather is generally sunny and the vegetable production is normal. The leaf vegetables replanted in the early stage only need to enter the market, and the vegetable price index is still likely to fall.
At the same time, demand and supply were sluggish, waiting for steady growth measures, concerns about Omicron fell, and international oil prices rose. Crude oil supply is expected to rise, and oil prices will be under pressure in the future. Weather factors hit again, and natural gas prices were at a high level. The operating rate of blast furnace declined, and the production capacity was low before the Winter Olympic Games. Steel stocks continued to decline slightly, steel mills started lower, rebar destocking continued, and measures to stabilize growth were waiting to take effect. The downward speed of hot coil is slow, and the recovery speed of manufacturing industry is slow.
