The government work report gives the main expected development goals for 2022, in which the GDP is expected to grow by about 5.5%; More than 11 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, and the urban survey unemployment rate was controlled within 5.5% throughout the year; Consumer prices rose by about 3%; The growth of residents’ income is basically synchronized with economic growth; The target of energy consumption intensity will be comprehensively assessed during the 14th Five Year Plan period, with appropriate flexibility. The new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control.
How to view China’s economic operation in 2021? Can the economic growth target of about 5.5% this year be achieved? How to expand middle-income groups? How to promote the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutralization goal?
On March 6, 21st Century Business Herald interviewed Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC National Committee and former deputy director of the development research center of the State Council.
2021: the effect of exchange rate appreciation on China’s economic growth is obvious
“21st century”: 2021 China’s economic GDP reached 114 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 5.1% in the two years. What do you think of last year’s economic operation?
Liu Shijin: in constant price terms, GDP increased by 8.1% in 2021. Between 2020 and 2021, the economy fluctuated greatly due to the epidemic, and the average growth rate in the two years was 5.1%, which was lower than that before the epidemic.
In terms of new economic growth, China’s GDP will increase by 13 trillion yuan in 2021 at the current price of RMB; If calculated in current dollars, China’s GDP will increase by $3 trillion in 2021, an increase of 20%.
Why is China’s GDP growing as fast as 20% in dollar terms? There are factors behind the appreciation of the RMB. It is preliminarily estimated that from 2020 to 2021, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will appreciate from 6.9 to 6.45, an appreciation of about 7%.
this indicates that China’s economy has entered a new stage. From the perspective of international comparison, China’s economic growth not only depends on China’s real growth, but also affected by the appreciation of exchange rate of course, the situation was complicated last year. The US monetary policy was excessively loose and the competitiveness of the US dollar was relatively declining. Although the overall economic growth of the United States was good, with a net growth of US $2 trillion. However, from the perspective of international comparison, we still need to give a high score to China’s economic performance.
Our previous research found that more than half of the economic growth of Japan and Germany came from exchange rate appreciation and less than half from China’s real growth in more than ten years after their per capita GDP reached US $10000 (similar to China’s current stage) exchange rate appreciation involves complex factors, but in the long run, it depends on the improvement of labor productivity and is based on the improvement of total factor productivity, which should be realized through high-quality development
Therefore, the enlightenment to China is, on the one hand, we should strive for the growth rate that can be achieved, adapt to China’s potential growth rate, and do not blindly catch up with it; On the other hand, we should adhere to high-quality development, improve total factor productivity and obtain the effect of exchange rate appreciation on a global scale, compared with this, China’s economic growth is still relatively fast.
deepen the reform of factor market and release the structural potential
21st century: in the past two years, the average annual growth rate of GDP was 5.1%, and the growth target for this year was set at about 5.5%. Is it difficult to achieve? How to deal with the policy level?
Liu Shijin: this year, China’s GDP growth rate is set at about 5.5%, which is flexible. The target of about 5.5% is a medium and high-speed growth above the high base. It is difficult to achieve and requires active efforts.
Of course, we should not blindly pursue higher growth, but adapt to China’s potential growth rate at this stage. If China pursues too high growth rate and makes China’s economy unstable, such as ups and downs, it will reduce the efficiency of resource allocation and lead to the decline of total factor productivity and labor productivity. In this way, the international exchange rate may depreciate and the economic growth in current US dollars may slow down.
According to our prediction, the economic trend of this year will remain at a low point in the first quarter, rise as a whole in the second quarter, be in a relatively high platform period in the third quarter, and the economic growth rate will drop in the fourth quarter.
The top priority is to deal with the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. For demand contraction and supply pressure, it is necessary to strengthen macroeconomic policies. However, the most important function of macro policy is to maintain short-term economic balance and stability. The medium and long-term stable growth momentum of China’s economy comes from structural potential. Over the past 30 years of rapid growth, China’s structural potential is mainly real estate, infrastructure investment, export and so on. Now, we need to explore new structural potential. I summarize it as “1 + 3 + 2” structural potential, which is to take the metropolitan area and urban agglomeration as the leader, make up for the three shortcomings of the real economy (low efficiency of basic industries, small scale of middle-income groups and weak basic R & D ability), and take digital economy and green development as the two wings.
To give full play to these structural potentials, we need to deepen reform and opening up, focusing on the reform of factor market.
the first is the reform of the land system for example, when rural collective construction land enters the market, can farmers’ homestead be orderly transferred outside the collective organization, so as to promote the two-way free flow of urban and rural land, labor, capital, technology and other elements.
the second is the reform of the labor market now the focus of population mobility is population mobility between cities. Generally, it is necessary to improve the density of population aggregation. Now, in cities with high density, productivity and per capita income are also relatively high, which is also the reason for the current emphasis on further promoting the development of metropolitan urban agglomeration. Migrant workers are the focus of the floating population. Solving the supporting basic public services for migrant workers is a prominent problem in the next step of labor market reform.
the third is the reform of the capital market the main line is to develop the capital market suitable for the transformation and upgrading of the real economy. Two problems should be solved: one is how to coordinate finance with the transformation and upgrading of the real economy, and the other is how to effectively provide funds for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises.
the fourth is the reform of the data market data, as a new element, can improve the efficiency of data flow and utilization by adjusting policies, deepening reform and promoting innovation, so as to accelerate the integration of digital economy and real economy.
three steps to be crossed in the next 15 years
“21st century”: 2021 China’s per capita GDP reached US $125500, exceeding the world average. During the two sessions, representatives and members were discussing common prosperity. In the future, how to further improve the income level of Chinese residents?
Liu Shijin: since the reform and opening up, part of “getting rich first” has driven China’s economic growth. Now, “making other people rich” can also drive economic growth.
China’s GDP has increased by $3 trillion in the past year. If it continues to maintain normal growth, China will soon become the largest economy in the world. However, China’s per capita GDP has just exceeded the world average, equivalent to only 1 / 4 of that of the United States.
In the next 15 years, China will go to three more levels, the first step is to enter the ranks of high-income countries, with a per capita GDP of more than US $12695; The second step is to enter the ranks of developed countries, with a per capita GDP of about 20000 US dollars; The third step is to reach the ranks of moderately developed countries, about 3 Tunghsu Azure Renewable Energy Co.Ltd(000040) 000 US dollars per capita
China now has only 400 million middle-income groups, and 900 million people are lower than middle-income groups. To achieve common prosperity, the focus is to improve the income of low – and middle-income groups and the human capital of low-income groups, including both physical and intellectual improvement and equal opportunities.
first of all, we should implement the policy of giving priority to employment and promote the realization of Fuller employment 2021 saw a net increase of 480000 people, close to zero growth. The total labor force has begun to decline, and the pressure on China’s total employment is declining. However, there is still a structural employment contradiction in China. Some people can’t find jobs and some jobs are short of people. The current employment stabilization policy needs to adapt to the structural transformation and upgrading of China’s economy.
in addition, the relevant fiscal, tax, monetary and employment policies should be more inclined to small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, because small, medium-sized and micro enterprises carry most of the current employment in China our research on the doubling of middle-income groups shows that middle-income groups can double in the next 10-15 years, and the 400 million new middle-income groups are basically distributed in private small, medium and micro enterprises.
moreover, the goal of the government’s economic work can shift from focusing on the economic aggregate in the past to focusing more on the per capita income index this needs to increase basic public services, tilt the whole economic resources more towards people’s livelihood, and make up for the debts of low-income groups, so as to promote the increase of per capita GDP and thus the increase of per capita disposable income.
green transformation can bring billions of investment opportunities
“21st century”: this year’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization work requirements, clarify the first step, then break, overall planning, and promote the transformation of low-carbon energy; Promote the R & D, promotion and application of green and low-carbon technologies, and improve the incentive and restraint mechanism for pollution and carbon reduction. How do you view these arrangements?
Liu Shijin: the biggest change of last year was that after the “double carbon” target was put forward, carbon reduction has become the common action of the whole society. Of course, there is also the problem of being eager for success. In some places, power is cut off. Carbon reduction cannot be “one-on-one”, nor can it be “Sports”. It is necessary to combine long-term planning with short-term specific measures. According to China’s current reality, a coordinated mechanism of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion and growth should be formed.
The “double carbon” goal will promote China’s comprehensive green transformation, and great changes will take place in China’s industrial structure, technological structure and the goal of economic and social environment development. The realization of the goal of “double carbon” is essentially to have a set of new green technologies to comprehensively transform the original technologies, which breeds great investment opportunities. Some researchers believe that it may bring a huge investment of one billion level.
Although China’s current carbon reduction is very efficient, it will also bring many problems. The realization of the “double carbon” goal should give full play to the role of the market, so that the market can play an important or even decisive role, so we should promote institutional innovation. Now a very basic work is to establish a carbon account on the basis of carbon accounting, so that the accounts of the government, enterprises and individuals can be calculated and their respective emission reduction responsibilities can be determined, and the whole world will be very clean.
