event:
On December 27, the National Bureau of statistics released the profit data of industrial enterprises in November. The cumulative profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size in November were 38% year-on-year and 42.2% of the previous value.
comment:
Under the drag of volume and cost, the profits of industrial enterprises fell slightly, the downstream improved and the structure was still differentiated
The profits of industrial enterprises fell slightly, which may be dragged down by the decline in volume and profit margin. In November, the accumulated profits of industrial enterprises were 38% year-on-year, down 4.2 percentage points from the previous value, and the two-year compound growth rate was 18.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value. Based on the industrial added value and PPI to observe the changes of volume and price, the two-year compound growth rate of industrial added value decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points, while the price rebounded slightly, which may mean that the decline of profit margin is a big drag.
The profit squeeze from upstream to downstream tends to ease, but the structural differentiation is still prominent. In November, the profits of mining industry driven by coal continued to rise, squeezing the profits of electricity, fuel and water, and the profit growth rate of manufacturing industry fell by 0.9 percentage points to 19.5%, still at a high level. Among them, the growth rate of upstream processing and smelting and midstream equipment manufacturing fell, while the growth rate of downstream consumption and manufacturing leveled off, but far lower than the first two; The growth rate of oil processing, ferrous metals and chemical fiber manufacturing in the upstream fell sharply, the growth rate of general and special equipment in the midstream fell for two consecutive months, and the textile and textile clothing in the downstream improved.
The profit growth of state-owned enterprises is still better than that of private enterprises, and the repair of statements of private enterprises may take a long time
The profit growth of different types of enterprises has declined, but the profit growth of state-owned enterprises is still significantly higher than that of private enterprises. In November, the two-year compound cumulative growth rates of profits of state-owned enterprises, foreign-funded enterprises, joint-stock enterprises and private enterprises were 25.6%, 13.9%, 21.4% and 14.1% respectively, all down from the previous month, of which the state-owned enterprises fell by more than 1 percentage point. Contrary to the profit growth rate, the growth rate of industrial production is the lowest among state-owned enterprises and the highest among private enterprises, pointing to the more significant profit squeeze on private enterprises, partly because most of the upstream raw materials are produced by state-owned enterprises.
The leverage of state-owned enterprises tends to rise, and some high-quality enterprises may contribute to steady growth, while the repair of statements of private enterprises may take a long time. In November, the asset liability ratio of state-owned enterprises increased by 0.2 percentage points to 57.3%, which was at a historical low. The asset liability ratio of large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises was lower, which was only 55.4% in October; The asset liability ratio of private enterprises decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points. Combined with the changes of profits and financing, the repair of statements of private enterprises is still in the process of slow repair; In the past few years, deleveraging and improved profits are conducive to the stable growth of high-quality state-owned enterprises.
Under the repeated epidemic situation, the inventory is passively accumulated, the repair of production and demand needs to be observed, and further efforts need to be made for stable growth
Under the influence of repeated epidemic, the inventory of finished products is passively accumulated, and the repair of production needs to be observed. In November, the two-year compound cumulative growth rate of industrial finished product inventory was 12.5%, an increase of 1 percentage point over the previous month. The actual inventory excluding price factors was also obviously accumulating, or due to the repeated interference of the epidemic on the production in some areas and the downturn of the production willingness of some middle and downstream enterprises, the PMI production index of small enterprises hit a record low, although the PMI index of large and medium-sized enterprises rebounded significantly recently However, it is significantly lower than that before power and production restriction, or it reflects that industrial production and demand are still weak to a certain extent.
Reiterate our view: the total economic volume is under periodic pressure, structural highlights and pressures coexist, and further efforts need to be made to stabilize growth. The monetary, financial, economic, profit and other data in November revealed clear economic signals, with total pressure, external strength and internal weakness, bright spots and pressures in the manufacturing structure coexisting, and the employment pressure caused by the downturn of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and some service industries accelerated. Recently, the overweight signal of steady growth is clear, and follow-up attention will be paid to the investment opportunities brought by the three "grasp" of steady growth and the improvement of the volume and price of some industries under the "scene repair" after the epidemic (for details, see "looking for a" new steady state ": four main logic in 2022").
Risk tip: the epidemic situation in the world and China is repeated, and the implementation of steady growth measures is less than expected.
