Key investment points
This week’s view
The National Bureau of statistics released the PMI of manufacturing industry in February, and the China Federation of things released the PMI of chemical industry in February In February, China’s manufacturing PMI was 50.2% (mom + 0.1pcts). The situation of enterprises returning to work and production after the festival was good. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate smoothly in the expansion range, and the prosperity level rebounded slightly. Specifically, (1) the production index and new order index were 50.4% and 50.7% respectively (month on month (- 0.5pcts and + 1.4pcts respectively). After the festival, the market demand release of manufacturing industry has accelerated, and the industries such as medicine, special equipment and automobile have developed rapidly. (2) The new export order index and import index were 49.0% and 48.6% respectively (mom + 0.6pcts and + 1.4pcts respectively), and the export was improved.
(3) the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 60.0% and 54.1% respectively (mom + 3.6pcts and + 3.2pcts respectively). The purchase cost of raw materials in relevant industries is increasing, and the sales price of products is rising rapidly. (4) The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises is 51.8% and 51.4% respectively, and that of small enterprises is 45.1%. The prosperity of enterprises of different sizes continues to differentiate. The resumption of work and production of small enterprises after the festival is relatively lagging behind, and the pressure of production and operation is still large.
In February, the PMI of China’s chemical industry (ccpmi) was 46.78% (month on month -3.45pcts). During the spring break and Winter Olympic Games, the chemical trading fell. At the same time, there was infection of Omicron mutant in China, which was controlled in many places. From the 18 sub indexes, 7 indexes increased month on month, among which the ex factory price of main products with an increase of more than 10 PCTs increased by 22.08 PCTs; The four indexes decreased, among which the production volume and new orders decreased by more than 10 PCTs, with a decrease of 14.29 PCTs and 11.04 PCTs respectively, mainly because February coincided with the Spring Festival and the Winter Olympic Games. The upstream manufacturers adjusted their production plans, many factories stopped production or reduced their burden, and the chemical trading fell. The other seven indexes remained unchanged from the previous month.
The government work report of the National People’s Congress included the target of energy consumption intensity in the main expected target of development in 2022.
The fifth session of the 13th National People’s Congress opened at the Great Hall of the people in Beijing on the morning of May 5. According to the agenda of the meeting, Premier Li Keqiang delivered a government work report to the Congress on behalf of the State Council, in which he put forward the main expected development goals for 2022: China’s total production value increased by about 5.5%; More than 11 million new jobs were created in cities and towns, and the urban survey unemployment rate was controlled within 5.5% throughout the year; Consumer prices rose by about 3%; The growth of residents’ income is basically synchronized with economic growth; Import and export remained stable and quality improved, and the balance of payments was basically balanced; Grain output remained above 1.3 trillion Jin; The quality of ecological environment continues to improve, and the emission of major pollutants continues to decline; The target of energy consumption intensity will be comprehensively assessed during the 14th Five Year Plan period, with appropriate flexibility. The new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control. It is suggested to pay attention to the key forces in reshaping the pattern of China’s chemical industry: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , private refining, etc.
Risk warning: the risk that the demand for chemical products does not meet expectations, the risk of sharp decline in international oil prices, and the risk of ineffective implementation of environmental protection
