Core view:
In the post epidemic era, the light industry manufacturing industry is deeply affected by the external economic environment and policy uncertainty, showing the characteristics of intensified differentiation. We believe that under this background, there are three main investment lines worthy of attention: 1) invest deeply in the main fields, carry out integrated layout relying on strong channel advantages, supply chain advantages and category advantages, and constantly seize market share α Property of leading enterprises. 2) The investment is greatly affected by the early supervision, the bad factors are basically cleared, and the enterprises expected to usher in valuation repair under the recovery of policies or favorable policies. 3) Investment segmentation track focuses on "small and beautiful" enterprises with independent logic that specialize in special new and practice new growth points of performance.
Household: the real estate policy may welcome the marginal recovery, intensify the differentiation and catalyze the industry concentration
Under the influence of the gradually tightened real estate regulation policy and the increasingly stringent financing policy, the new house sales and second-hand house transaction data show a weak trend, bringing pressure on the marginal demand of the home industry. We believe that with the relaxation of real estate financing and the correction of pessimistic expectations on the policy side, the completion and small house delivery peak in the fourth quarter, it will form a certain support and driving role for the prosperity of the home industry, and the leading enterprises in the home industry will reap the concentrated dividends of the industry in the market competition with increasing differentiation by virtue of the advantages of integrated layout. It is recommended to pay attention to the customized faucet Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) benefiting from the packaged large home model, the software faucet Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) covered by the full category living home matrix, and the intelligent electric bed supplier Keeson Technology Corporation Limited(603610) seizing the blue ocean of smart sleep.
Papermaking: the profitability of the industry has basically hit the bottom, and "double control" may help improve the supply and demand structure
Wood pulp is the raw material of papermaking. The demand is weak and the price continues to be depressed. It is expected that the price will continue to be under pressure and remain volatile in the future. Influenced by the "double reduction" policy, the volume and price of cultural paper fell to a low level this year. The negative factors in the early stage were basically cleared. Under the favorable conditions of superimposing the strong rise of the leader, it is expected that the profit situation will be repaired to a certain extent. The upper limit of the white cardboard policy has brought favorable policies, and the consumption upgrading has increased downstream demand, which is in a better situation. Waste paper is papermaking. Under the ban on foreign waste, the prosperity of the industry is rising, and the leading paper enterprises enjoy cost dividends. It is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) of Forest Pulp paper integration, Shandong Bohui Paper Industry Co.Ltd(600966) of good long-term pattern of white cardboard market, and Yueyang Forest & Paper Co.Ltd(600963) of active layout of carbon sink trading.
E-cigarette: the leading brand PMTA has sufficient confidence in passing the audit, and China's policies are waiting to be implemented
The e-cigarette regulatory policy has shown positive signals all over the world. The American e-cigarette VUSE has passed the PMTA approval for the first time, and the United Kingdom has "incorporated e-cigarettes into medical insurance", and the national standard and tobacco monopoly regulations have set the tone for e-cigarette regulation. The increasingly clear foreign policies in China make the e-cigarette market expected to return to rationality in the short term and accelerate the clearance of small workshops in the industry. We believe that the addiction of nicotine and the harm reduction attribute of e-cigarette are prominent. Under the background of increasing tobacco control all over the world, the industry penetration can be improved. Whether facing the influence of policy supervision factors or tax policies, it will not affect its growth logic in the long term. It is suggested to pay attention to smore international, the leading electronic cigarette OEM in atomization technology, and Huabao international, which focuses on the layout of HNB's whole industrial chain.
Specialization and Innovation: Policy outlet helps small and medium-sized enterprises enjoy dividends and focus on subdivided tracks
While consolidating the development of traditional main business, some "small and beautiful" light industry manufacturing enterprises continue to invest in R & D, constantly expand new business and extend to "specialized and special new". The policy side has successively issued a large number of policies to support the development and growth of specialized and special new small and medium-sized enterprises, and determined the policy goal of "stimulating the emergence of a large number of specialized and special new enterprises". The opening of the Beijing stock exchange will attract more specialized and new small and medium-sized manufacturing companies to enter the capital market, triggering the outbreak of specialized and new concepts. A number of funds layout and apply for specialized special new theme funds, and specialized special new theme stocks may usher in a large amount of funds. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co.Ltd(600210) of domestic alternative logic of aluminum-plastic film, Jahen Household Products Co.Ltd(300955) of small giant of daily chemical integration OEM, and Shenzhen Leaguer Co.Ltd(002243) of increasing incubation results of science and innovation.
Risk statement
Real estate boom is lower than expected risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, policy risk and public health event risk
