A piece of news stirred the trillion track.
On March 4, the Japan Broadcasting Association reported that Panasonic plans to buy land in the United States to build a large power battery factory, which may produce 4680 batteries for Tesla, with an investment of billions of dollars.
according to official data, the energy density of 4680 battery reaches 300kwh / kg, the single energy of 4680 cell is increased by 5 times, the range of the whole vehicle is increased by 16%, and the output power is increased by 6 times, but the cost is reduced by 14%
Tesla CEO musk once said frankly that this battery is a “huge breakthrough” in technology, which will make it possible for his company to produce electric vehicles for $25000. With the disclosure of Panasonic’s plant construction plan, the time point for mass production of 4680 batteries may not be far away.
In fact, after Friday’s trading, a policy document on the new energy track also attracted market attention. The Ministry of science and technology and other nine departments issued the notice on the implementation plan of scientific and technological cooperation between the East and the West during the 14th five year plan, which proposed to deepen the cooperation between Qinghai and Tianjin, Shandong, Anhui, Chongqing and other provinces and cities to build a world-class Salt Lake Industrial Base. The plan also proposes to support Yunnan to build a “photovoltaic capital of the world”.
In addition, lithium prices are still soaring. On March 4, the average price of pool grade lithium carbonate rose 5500 yuan / ton to 500000 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the year, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China has increased by 67%.
battery giant’s big move
Panasonic, a Japanese power battery giant, is trying to “hold” Tesla‘s “thigh”.
On March 4, NHK reported that Panasonic plans to buy land in the United States to build a large power battery factory to produce batteries for Tesla‘s new electric vehicles, according to people familiar with the matter.
it is reported that Panasonic’s new plant in the United States may be used to produce 4680 batteries. The investment amount of the plant may be as high as billions of dollars. The specific location of the plant may be in Oklahoma and Kansas. Because these two states are close to Texas, Tesla is preparing a new electric vehicle factory in Texas
As it relates to the latest development of 4680 battery, the above news has attracted market attention once reported. In this regard, Panasonic responded that the plant construction plan reported by NHK was not the information provided by Panasonic, and the detailed information was subject to the announcement of the company.
In fact, not long ago, Panasonic announced that it plans to start mass production of 4680 batteries in fiscal year 2023 (April 2023 March 2024), and plans to add two production lines in the goshan factory in western Japan.
NHK reported that after large-scale mass production in the future, Panasonic will give priority to Tesla, but it does not rule out selling to electric vehicle manufacturers other than Tesla.
4680 battery is a new type of power battery with larger size, 46 mm in diameter and 80 mm in height. Due to the higher battery capacity of 4680, it can reduce the number of batteries carried by electric vehicles, which makes it possible to manufacture electric vehicles with lower cost and longer mileage.
Therefore, once the 4680 battery came out, it received very high attention. In September 2020, Tesla announced the 4680 battery technology for the first time. According to official data, its energy density reached 300kwh / kg, the single energy of 4680 cell increased by 5 times, the vehicle range increased by 16%, the output power increased by 6 times, and the cost decreased by 14%.
Tesla CEO musk once said frankly that this battery is a “huge breakthrough” in technology, which will make it possible for his company to produce electric vehicles for $25000.
How can this battery be put into mass production has become the focus of the outside world. Previously, yield has been one of the biggest problems perplexing the mass production of 4680 batteries. Tesla has been looking for cooperative manufacturers of 4680 large cylindrical batteries around the world. In addition to Panasonic, South Korea’s LG energy, Samsung SDI and China’s power battery enterprises are accelerating the layout of the battery.
At the end of 2021, Panasonic and Sony announced that the yield rate of 4680 batteries had increased from 20% to 80%, which may also be the basis for Panasonic’s claim to realize trial production this year.
With the disclosure of Panasonic’s plant construction plan, the time point for mass production of 4680 batteries may not be far away.
churning trillion track
When Panasonic achieves mass production of 4680 batteries, other players in the power battery track will probably start a new round of competition.
But at present, whether the mass production of 4680 batteries can be successfully realized as planned may be a “battle of life and death” for Panasonic.
Because, in the view of the outside world, the 4680 battery is the key point for Panasonic to make a comeback. In recent years, Panasonic’s position in Tesla’s procurement matrix has deteriorated from being the only supplier at first to being gradually robbed by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG new energy.
According to SNE research data, the installed capacity of global power batteries in 2021 was about 296.8gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 102.18%. Among the top 10 enterprises, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery enterprises occupy 6 seats, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) has a global market share of 32.6%, ranking first, with a year-on-year increase of 8 percentage points; Followed by LG new energy, with a market share of 20.3%, Panasonic fell to the third place, with a global market share of 12.2%, a year-on-year decrease of about 6 percentage points.
As early as 2016, Panasonic was the absolute overlord of the global power battery market, once accounting for 40% of the market. Today, Panasonic’s secondary battery business unit accounts for only about 5% of the company’s overall revenue, and lacks cost control, resulting in frequent losses in the battery business.
As of the closing on March 4, Panasonic’s latest market value was 2.6 trillion yen (about 142.2 billion yuan), while Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ‘s latest market value was as high as 1.15 trillion yuan, almost equal to eight Panasonic companies.
Some analysts pointed out that in this situation, Panasonic spent billions of dollars to build factories in the United States, which shows its great determination and high hopes for 4680 battery. It is urgent to reverse the decline through this new power battery.
At the same time, the second tier players in China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery market also focused on the 4680 battery, trying to seize the opportunity of overtaking in the corner.
At present, battery enterprises such as BIC battery, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , honeycomb energy have made it clear that they have started the research and development of large cylindrical batteries including 4680.
Lin Jianceng, chief scientist of BIC, said that BIC is cooperating with customers in the application development of all polar ear large cylindrical battery. 4680 cells are expected to start mass production in 2023 and take the lead in the application of electric vehicle market.
In addition, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) also has two major models of 4680 and 4695, and plans to gradually promote large cylindrical batteries to the market after 2023.
a heavy file
After Friday, a policy document on the new energy track also attracted market attention.
The Ministry of science and technology and other nine departments issued the notice on the implementation plan of scientific and technological cooperation between the East and the West during the 14th five year plan, which proposed to build a world-class Salt Lake industrial base. Deepen the cooperation between Qinghai and Tianjin, Shandong, Anhui, Chongqing and other provinces and cities, improve the upstream and downstream collaborative innovation mechanism of the salt lake industry, improve the technology and industrialization level of high-value development and utilization of potassium, magnesium, lithium and other resources in the salt lake, enhance the innovation and development capacity of Salt Lake chemical enterprises, and promote the construction of digital Salt Lake and smart salt lake, Accelerate the development of Haixi Salt Lake chemical industry characteristic circular economy innovative industrial clusters and enhance the competitiveness of salt lake industry.
The plan also proposes to support Kunming, Yuxi, Chuxiong and other national high-tech zones in Yunnan Province and Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) , Zhangjiang, Shenzhen and other national high-tech zones to jointly build pairs, deepen research cooperation in clean energy fields such as “water wind light” multi-energy complementarity, energy storage and smart energy, and carry out key technological breakthroughs in rare and precious metals, green aluminum and silicon and other industries, Build a cluster area for innovation and development of characteristic industries to support Yunnan to build a “photovoltaic capital of the world”.
From the perspective of policy, the favorable policies of the new energy track are still continuous, especially in the fields of lithium resources, photovoltaic and so on. It can be predicted that the prosperity of the new energy track will continue to maintain for some time in the future.
From the market level, the price of lithium is still rising. According to the data released by Shanghai Ganglian E-Commerce Holdings Co.Ltd(300226) release, on March 4, the quotation of some lithium battery materials rose sharply, and the battery grade lithium carbonate rose 5500 yuan / ton, with an average price of 500000 yuan / ton; Lithium hydroxide increased by 6 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan / ton; Electrolytic cobalt rose by 3200 yuan / ton.
compared with the beginning of the year, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate in China has increased by 67%, from 400000 yuan / ton to 500000 yuan / ton in only 20 days
According to the calculation of Minmetals securities, the global demand for lithium resources is expected to reach 750000 tons of LCE, and the new supply is about 180000 tons of LCE, which can theoretically just meet the new demand of global terminals. Sun Jingwen, assistant director of Minmetals Securities Research Institute, said that there is a stock effect in the industrial chain. Especially this year is a big year for the expansion of production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. Manufacturers need to prepare initial inventory, and will stock as much as possible considering the price trend.
