In November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 450000, and the demand for lithium salt continued to increase
In November, China produced and sold 457000 and 450000 new energy vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.2 times respectively. Among them, in November, the market penetration of new energy vehicles was 17.8%, and the market penetration of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.5%. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 3.023 million and 2.99 million respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year. Market penetration reached 12.7%. In mid November, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle production and sales data continued to improve, and the hot downstream demand for new energy will continue to drive the demand for lithium salt.
Pilbara lowered the 22-year production guidelines, and the lithium price is expected to remain high in 22 years
This week, the contract of lithium carbonate in February 22 has risen to 2935000. In the short term, the demand for ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate and other downstream products on the demand side has increased greatly, and the order inquiry is positive. The rise of new energy vehicles superimposed on the terminal is hot, while the power restriction in various regions on the supply side and the gas restriction policy in heating season in Qinghai have a significant impact on the production of lithium carbonate. Pilbara, one of the core supply increments next year, lowered its production guidelines this week, of which 1) Q4 production guidelines in 21 were lowered to 85000-95000 tons of concentrate. (originally planned to be 90000-115000 tons of concentrate) 2) the production guidelines of pilabra in fiscal year 22 were lowered (originally planned to be 460000-510000 tons of concentrate), and now it is reduced to 400000-450000 tons of concentrate. The tight supply and demand of lithium salt continues, and the lithium price is expected to remain high in 22 years. Short term suggestions are focused on: Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) .
Compared with the surge of short-term lithium price, we should pay more attention to performance realization and price sustainability
At present, lithium prices continue to rise, while the performance of the secondary market is weak. Just as our report Tianfeng Q & a series: why the upstream lithium sector continues to deviate from the fundamentals traces back to the last round of lithium price cycle, the stock price deviated from the fundamentals in the last round, and the achievement is more critical. At the same time, the market is worried that the lithium sector is still biased towards the cyclical attribute, the high price is difficult to maintain, and the cyclical high profit cannot be valued. We believe that with the continuous improvement of the demand for new energy industry next year, the lithium price center will maintain a high boom in the whole year of 22 years. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually forms consistent expectations for the price, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise’s expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the long-term of lithium plate is “volume” rather than “price”. In the dark moment, we are still firmly optimistic about the configuration value of lithium plate next year.
Recently, cobalt prices hit a new high this year
Recently, the price of cobalt outside China has continued to rise. The price of MB has reached US $30.25/pound, and the average price of cobalt in China has reached 430000 / ton, which has reached a new high in the year. The reasons are as follows: 1. The continuous high growth of global production and sales of new energy vehicles on the demand side drives the demand for cobalt; 2. The continuous epidemic in Africa and the chaos of international shipping on the supply side have led to a continuous decline in the import of cobalt raw materials. As of October, the cumulative import of cobalt intermediate products was 66500 metal tons, an increase of 5%, but the import volume in October was 5200 metal tons, a year-on-year decrease of 44% and a month-on-month decrease of 30%. The disturbance on the supply side is intensifying.
South Africa has more than 1000 confirmed cases in a single day, and the cobalt supply chain may face the risk of interruption again
On November 26, a mutant strain was found in South Africa, with more than 1000 confirmed cases in a single day. Many countries have restricted the entry of relevant personnel from South Africa. South Africa is the largest transit place for cobalt transportation in Africa. It has been closed due to the outbreak of the epidemic for 20 years. If the new variant is not effectively controlled in South Africa, the cobalt supply chain may face the risk of interruption again. Looking forward to the future, the end of the year is the centralized preparation period for downstream battery plants. The shortage of raw materials may be further amplified, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to reach a new high. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , etc.
Risk tips: the risk of less than expected demand recovery, the risk of large increase in upstream supply, the risk of repeated epidemic, and the risk of significant increase in inventory.
