Opportunities of the times: Cordless Tools + technology cost reduction, overseas withdrawal of domestic cells to meet the opportunities
Cylindrical lithium battery is the core power supply of cordless electric tools. For a long time, the lithium battery cell market has been monopolized by overseas leaders such as Samsung SDI and LG Chemical; The big wave of new energy vehicles has pushed overseas manufacturers to turn to the development of vehicle power batteries, and the stagnation of capacity planning has led to a tight supply of lithium cores. We believe that on the premise of technology catching up and price winning, the current time point is the best time for domestic cell manufacturers to seize the stock and layout increment.
Demand side: benefiting from cordless electric tools, 2.5 billion new cells were added and 20 billion market increment was released
The cordless market has a compound growth of 10% in five years. In 2020, the total installed capacity of lithium cell batteries for tools will be about 2.02 billion, and we estimate that the new demand will be nearly 2.5 billion by 2025; Release the market of 20 billion yuan with a single cell of 8 yuan.
Supply side: China plans nearly 2.3 billion new production capacity, and the supply-demand gap continues for a long time
The output of lithium core outside China accounts for about 8:2, and the industry CR3 accounts for nearly 75%. With the withdrawal of overseas leaders from capacity planning, on the premise of technological catch-up and price victory, China’s demand for power cells has ushered in rapid growth. By 2025, about 2.3 billion new planned production capacity of core domestic cell plants will be added, and the gap between supply and demand will continue.
Who can grasp: with certification barriers, double rate technology enterprises will stand out
The core industry barriers are downstream supply chain certification barriers and high rate technical barriers. Downstream power tool manufacturers are mainly foreign leading enterprises, with industry CR10 of 73%. Cell manufacturers have high supplier certification barriers. Power tools have a demand for the rate performance of batteries. High quality manufacturers can lead industries in post cycle capacity, high and low temperature discharge capacity, and build a core moat with high rate performance.
Future direction: materials + technology go hand in hand, and dig deep into the space for rate performance optimization
Due to the demand for instantaneous charge and discharge, the optimization direction of tool batteries is to further improve the high rate performance. In the future, the capacity of domestic batteries will break through more than 5Ah, and the high and low temperature performance and safety under abuse will be further improved. We believe that the technical layout will continue to be optimized at the material end + process end:
Material end: high nickel system + silicon based system, focusing energy density is improved
High nickel materials such as ncm8 series and NCA; The utilization of silicon-based materials such as silicon carbon and silicon oxide can effectively improve the energy density and the high and low temperature performance of the battery. The Chinese representative manufacturer Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) has formed a lithium battery route system with both NCM and NCA; Changhong energy has silicon carbon anode technology reserves.
Process side: focus on process innovation, automation + refinement is the general trend
The downstream electric tool faucet has high requirements for refinement, and the purchase premise is to be equipped with Korean automatic production line. At present, the daily production efficiency of the Korean production line at the front end of the technology is 200ppm, Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) with multiple 200ppm production lines; Changhong energy has fully introduced a 200ppm production line with new capacity, and its production efficiency is at the forefront of the industry.
Suggested attention: Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) ; Changhong energy
1) The share of existing and planned capacity is high, and the automation level is high; 2) Enter the supply chain of head electric tool manufacturers and have bargaining power; 3) It is a leading enterprise with high rate supporting technology reserves.
Risk tip: the cordless progress is less than expected and the competition pattern is deteriorating
