Photovoltaic: the loose price of the industrial chain promotes the recovery of downstream demand, and the whole county promotes the growth of distributed photovoltaic beyond expectations. In terms of market, driven by the global dual carbon vision, the demand potential for photovoltaic terminal installation is abundant. With the gradual production of sufficient capacity of silicon materials and silicon wafers, when the upstream of the industrial chain enters the game and price reduction channel, the supply-demand game between the photovoltaic manufacturing industrial chain and the power station is expected to be alleviated. With the decline of component prices, the IRR income of terminal power stations will return to normal, The demand potential is expected to be further released. We estimate that the global PV installed demand from 2022 to 2023 will be about 210gw and 240gw respectively, of which China's demand will be 78gw and 82gw respectively. In terms of industrial chain opportunities, we believe that the investment opportunities in 2022 will mainly focus on the components and terminal power stations that are the main beneficiaries of the silicon wafer price war. In addition, as the downstream demand continues to exceed expectations, there will be a phased shortage of EVA particles with slow production expansion and certification cycle, which is expected to continue to increase both volume and price in 2022. In terms of technology, the path of cost reduction and efficiency increase of hjt appears, equipment orders take the lead, domestic core equipment has been verified by hjt mass production line, and domestic substitution can be realized in mainstream links. PECVD and RPD / PVD are the core of hjt equipment, and there is a broad market space under the promotion of hjt mass production line.
Wind power: the parity of sea breeze is expected to appear, and the profits of head parts enterprises have a certain growth. In terms of market, China's double carbon "1 + n" policy system has been continuously improved, which is expected to underpin the medium and long-term growth expectations of new energy. We expect that the double carbon target implies an average annual installed capacity of 45 and 60GW of wind power in the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan, which is expected to further exceed expectations driven by supporting policies. In terms of industrial chain opportunities, bearings are the last link in the complete localization of wind turbines in China, and there is still much room for domestic substitution. Globally, after years of industrial competition, the high-end market of the bearing industry is monopolized by eight major overseas multinational bearing enterprises, We are optimistic that Chinese bearing enterprises that begin to layout in technology and all links are expected to enjoy the two wheel drive of domestic substitution + market growth. As mainstream economies accelerate the planning of offshore wind turbines, and the bidding price of offshore wind continues to decline, parity is expected to accelerate. We believe that leading enterprises with obvious market share advantages of offshore wind turbines are expected to obtain alpha excess returns.
Investment suggestion: under the upstream price game of the photovoltaic industry chain, the profitability of component enterprises optimistic about the downstream integrated layout rebounds + the trend of demand growth. In the first year of hjt mass production, under the accelerated layout planning of leading enterprises, domestic core equipment has been verified by hjt mass production line of Huasheng new energy, and domestic substitution can be realized in mainstream links. Therefore, we are optimistic that the full production line with equipment layout in amorphous silicon film deposition link with high added value and the highest technical barriers will cover leading manufacturers. The policy underpinning the upward movement of the wind turbine installation center. We expect that the double carbon target implies an average annual installation requirement of 45 and 60GW for wind power in the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan. The high-end bearing market is monopolized by eight major overseas multinational bearing enterprises. We are optimistic that Chinese bearing enterprises starting to layout in technology and all links are expected to enjoy the two wheel drive of domestic substitution + market growth.
Risk tips: the price competition exceeds expectations, the price of raw materials fluctuates adversely, the new energy policy is less than expected, the battery technology iteration risk, the consumption risk of Fengguang project, the mass production of hjt fails to meet expectations, and the localization progress of bearings is less than expected.
