Food and beverage
In this period, the food and beverage sector fell by 1.49%, including 3.57% of food processing, 2.57% of Baijiu and 1.56% of snack food. The rise in the food processing sector was in line with expectations, covering listed companies in emerging markets and representing some high growth industries. In this period, due to the sharp increase of geopolitical risks, the shock of peripheral financial markets intensified. Baijiu sector hoarded a larger volume of funds, the market turmoil period has been more sell-off. Risk warning: rising manufacturing costs; Residents’ consumption is weak.
Computer
In this period, affected by the news that Russia is prohibited from using swift, the concept equity related to digital currency gained a large increase this week. In the context of the Ukrainian war, we believe that the industry needs of network security, digital currency and information innovation related to national security will be further strengthened. Considering the long-term nature of the confrontation between China and the United States, under the background that European and American enterprises give up neutrality to resist the Russian platform, globalization will become an important risk to national security under the current world pattern. At the same time, in the upcoming two sessions on the 5th, it is expected to release more ideas and directions for the development of digital economy, and it is also suggested to pay positive attention.
Risk warning: uncertainty of international situation; The upper reaches of enterprises cut spending under inflation; Local debt risk release; The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
In the current period, the bank (CITIC) index was flat. Among the segments, the index of state-owned banks rose 1.71%, the index of joint-stock banks fell 1.6%, and the index of regional banks rose 2.22%. The insurance index fell 5.11% and the real estate index fell 3.32%. Over the same period, the CSI 300 index fell 1.68%. Compared with the macro disturbance, we pay more attention to the improvement of the “internal strength” of the industry. It is considered that the extremely low valuation level of the current banking sector fully reflects the pessimistic expectations of the market on the credit risk exposure and macroeconomic downturn of the real estate industry. At the same time, considering the good performance growth and continuously improved asset quality of the bank, it is considered that the current sector has high allocation value and maintains the investment rating of “stronger than the market” of the industry. Focus on the quality of state-owned commercial banks and the head of regional joint-stock commercial banks. Risk tip: the asset quality has deteriorated significantly, resulting in systemic risk.
Media
Market review: in this period (February 28 – March 4), the media sector fell by 0.37%. In the same period, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index and gem index were – 0.11%, – 1.68%, – 3.75% respectively. The media sector ranked 18th in the weekly rise and fall of CS class I industry, ranking 9 higher than the previous period.
Investment view: the trend of the media sector in this period is relatively stable, and its performance is significantly better than that in the previous period. The impact of international political conflict on the sector tends to be stable. With the upcoming two sessions, it is expected that there will be more proposals in the fields of digital economy, meta universe, cultural development and intellectual property protection. It is suggested to pay attention to the proposals in the fields related to cultural media, Internet and digital economy in the two sessions in the near future.
Risk warning: the risk of international political turmoil; The risk of repeated outbreaks and virus mutation; The tightening of regulatory policies exceeded expectations; Intensified market competition; Goodwill impairment risk; The quality of output content is lower than expected; The characteristics of project system lead to unstable performance.
Machinery
In this period, CS machinery sector fell 2.44%, underperforming CSI 300 (- 1.68%) by 0.76 PCT, ranking 25th in 30 CS primary industries. It is suggested that the semiconductor technology will continue to rebound in the short term, and the mainstream equipment will continue to rebound. It is suggested to focus on the growth of the mainstream track, and the semiconductor technology will continue to rebound in the short term. In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to the mainstream growth track represented by new energy photovoltaic wind power equipment, lithium battery equipment and specialized new small giant enterprises. The policy has focused on stabilizing growth for many times, and the oil price has continued to rise sharply, at a high level, which is good for the leaders of oil and gas equipment and other sectors.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; The price of raw materials continues to rise sharply; Major changes have taken place in the new energy policy.
Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
In this period, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (CITIC) industry increased by 3.28%; The CSI 300 index fell 1.68%, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry outperformed the benchmark index by 4.96 percentage points. From the perspective of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, the animal protection sector increased the most this week, closing up 6.28%; Aquatic products processing sector fell the most, down 3.46%. Suggestions: focus on the pet food sector in the high growth track and the seed industry sector with policy expectations.
Risk warning: the risk of sharp fluctuations in livestock and poultry prices and raw material prices; Risk that the progress of relevant policies of seed industry is less than expected; The aggravation and deterioration of African swine fever has led to the risk that the slaughter volume of pigs is less than expected.
Chemical industry
In this period, CITIC basic chemical industry index fell 3.21%, underperforming the Shanghai index by 3.10 percentage points, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.53 percentage points, ranking 27th among 30 CITIC primary industries. Among CITIC’s tertiary sub industries, 10 rose and 23 fell, with viscose, inorganic salt and soda ash sectors leading the performance. It is suggested to pay attention to: oil and gas exploitation, coal chemical industry, modified plastics and chemical fertilizer.
Risk tips: raw material prices fluctuate sharply, product prices decline sharply, and the strength of environmental protection policies is lower than expected
Securities
After the low and weak shock of the current period’s brokerage index, it hit a new low in this round of adjustment on Friday. The overall performance was weaker than expected, but the decline was significantly narrowed month on month. In a short period of time, the brokerage sector is expected to have a repair market, but the overall trend of weak shock consolidation will still be maintained.
Risk tips: 1 The short-term growth rate is too fast and the growth rate is too large, resulting in the rapid adjustment of securities companies; 2. The weakening of the secondary market of equity and fixed income leads to the failure to continuously improve the operating performance of the securities industry; 3. The progress and strength of comprehensively deepening the reform of the capital market are less than expected.
Photovoltaic
The photovoltaic industry rose 0.89% in the current period, continuing to outperform the CSI 300 index. The weekly turnover of the sector was 187571 billion yuan, a month on month contraction. Individual stocks in the sector rose or fell by half, and individual stocks showed obvious differentiation. The progress of short-term silicon material release is less than expected, and the price of photovoltaic industry chain tends to be strong. The rising price of photovoltaic products may have an adverse impact on the subsequent installation. Considering the industrial situation, valuation and market sentiment, it is impossible to judge whether it is a phased bottom in the short term. Under the background of the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates and the downward market risk appetite, the valuation of the sector may still be compressed. It is suggested to focus on the leading enterprises in the field of thermal field materials, photovoltaic glass, integrated module factory and inverter based on long-term competitiveness.
Risk warning: the global installed demand is less than expected; Performance growth was less than expected.
Electronic
Market review:
The current electronics (Shenwan) index fell 4.26%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (- 1.68%) in the same period, ranking 30th among 31 Shenwan level industries. At present, under the background of rapid rotation of industry hotspots in the secondary market, the performance of sub sectors in the electronics industry is also relatively differentiated. There are many theme hotspots in the industry, such as “folding screen”, “Automotive intelligence”, “continuous penetration of VR” and “domestic substitution of Semiconductors”. At the same time, the external environment, such as US science and technology sanctions, potential conflicts between Russia and Ukraine The risk factors such as the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates are also. The tightening expectation of this risk preference will have a negative impact on the technology industry in particular. From a long-term perspective, under the background of the global epidemic, the demand in 5g + alot, new energy vehicles, smart home, telecommuting, PC and other fields has been directly or indirectly boosted, and the electronic sector has long-term growth momentum. It is suggested to pay attention to the fields of semiconductors, automotive electronics and passive components (MLCC, PCB).
Risk tips: 1) game uncertainty in the field of science and technology between China and the United States; 2) The cost of upstream raw materials remains high; 3) Chinese manufacturers
