In his government work report, the premier put forward a series of important goals, such as economic growth, deficit arrangement, new employment and so on. What important signals have the new policy mix become clearer?
The government work report established a target combination of high growth and low deficit. The government work report sets the GDP target at about 5.5%, which reflects the policy attitude of firm confidence and initiative. In 2021, both supply and demand sides of China's economy will be impacted, and the actual growth is lower than the potential growth rate. If the potential growth rate can be returned in 2022, the actual growth should be about 5.5%. The target of the fiscal deficit ratio is set at about 2.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from last year. Taking into account that certain state-owned financial institutions and specialized institutions have legally turned over the remaining profits in recent years and transferred into the budget stability adjustment fund, the scale of expenditure has increased by more than 2 trillion yuan over last year, and the available financial resources have increased significantly. In 2022, the scale of expenditure will reach more than 26.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 8.1%, and the intensity of active fiscal policy will increase significantly compared with last year. However, in order to achieve a GDP growth rate of 5.5% (the nominal growth rate may be about 9%), other policies need to be coordinated.
We will expand credit, reduce taxes and stabilize real estate and work together to stabilize growth. It is clearly proposed to "expand the scale of new loans". We expect that the annual new credit may increase by about 2.5 trillion yuan over last year, and the growth rate of social finance will reach more than 11%. The peak may appear in October this year, and it is expected to be in the period of credit expansion in the first three quarters of this year. The statement of "giving full play to the role of policy and development finance" is put forward for the first time in recent years, indicating that policy and development financial institutions may become an important starting point for credit development this year. The new combined tax support policy will be implemented, and both tax reduction and tax rebate will be carried out. It is estimated that the annual tax rebate and tax rebate will be about 2.5 trillion yuan, of which about 1.5 trillion yuan will be retained. The proposal of "taking multiple measures to stabilize foreign trade, accelerate the progress of export tax rebate, and help foreign trade enterprises stabilize orders and production" is conducive to providing more support for exports and continuing the export boom. To achieve the GDP growth target of 5.5%, the premise is to stabilize the real estate. The report highlights the word "stability" in the real estate policy, emphasizing the stability of land price, house price and expectation. The real estate may become the biggest exceeding expectation.
The "single point of energy consumption control" has become an important historical point of "single point of energy consumption control". Focus on "establishing financial stability guarantee fund" and "improving the bond financing mechanism of private enterprises".
Risk factors: covid-19 virus mutation leads to vaccine failure; China's policy exceeded expectations.
