Key investment points
One week scan:
Epidemic situation: the pressure of epidemic situation in China has eased, and the number of new confirmed cases in surrounding areas has risen against the trend. As of March 3rd, Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan had over 500 cases and 86 thousand cases newly diagnosed in a week. The epidemic situation in Hong Kong, China continued to deteriorate, with more than 20000 new cases in a single day and still accelerating. As of March 3, about 10.46 million new confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia worldwide were recorded in a week, a decrease of 12.8% compared with the previous week. New diagnoses in South Korea continued to rise against the trend, while new diagnoses in Vietnam and Thailand rose sharply this week. There were about 56000 new deaths of covid-19 pneumonia worldwide in a week, down 12.4% from last week. The new death toll in the United States and South Korea increased. Omicron new variant strain ba 2 has spread in many countries around the world. The United States relaxed the requirements for wearing masks, and the total amount of global vaccination this week decreased slightly from last week, recording 170 million doses. The global booster vaccination rate was 17.9%, up 1.6% from last week. Among them, Europe and the United States have strengthened needle vaccination, accounting for 22% of the world.
Overseas: non farm performance is bright, and Europe and the United States have increased sanctions against Russia. Inflation remains the top issue, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may not affect interest rate hikes. Fed chairman Powell said that the US economy can afford to raise interest rates and will propose to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the Fed meeting in two weeks. Inflation in the euro zone has intensified, and all parties are flexible to deal with the upward risk of energy prices. This week, a number of ECB officials delivered speeches expressing concerns about inflation and energy crisis in the eurozone. Europe and the United States increased sanctions against Russia, and Russia took countermeasures. The new non-agricultural employment showed a bright performance, and the labor participation rate increased slightly. Labor supply in the transportation and storage industry has tightened. Non farm hourly wages fell year-on-year and month on month. The year-on-year growth rate of wages in most industries decreased compared with the previous month. The existing job gap is still larger than the employment gap. The pressure on the global supply chain has slowed down, but it is still at an all-time high. Manufacturing PMI in the United States rose slightly and Japan fell sharply.
Price: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale prices have rebounded and international oil prices have risen. This week, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price index of the Ministry of agriculture rose month on month, pork prices continued to fall, while the average prices of 28 key monitored vegetables rose and 7 key monitored fruits fell. The average price of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil rose month on month this week, the average price of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal fell, and the average price of rebar fell slightly.
Liquidity: the short-term capital interest rate fell, and the US dollar index continued to rise. This week, the short-term capital interest rate decreased, the weekly average of dr001 decreased by 22.7bp month on month, and the weekly average of dr007 decreased by 14.7bp month on month; The weekly average of 3-month Shibor interest rate decreased month on month, and the weekly average of 3-month certificate of deposit issuance interest rate decreased slightly. The interest rate of bills is divided. The weekly average of one-month rediscount interest rate of state-owned shares and silver bills rises, while the six-month and one-year rediscount interest rate decreases slightly. This week, the central bank conducted a total of 380 billion yuan of reverse repo and 5 billion yuan of CBS in the open market. This week, the central bank’s open market has a total of 810 billion yuan of reverse repo and 5 billion yuan of CBS expired; Next week, 380 billion yuan of reverse repo will expire in the central bank’s open market. The dollar index continued to rise this week and the RMB remained stable.
Performance of major categories of assets: European stocks significantly corrected and treasury bond yields rose. Most of the world’s major stock markets corrected this week, the three major indexes of US stocks all corrected, and the European market fell significantly. The top three sectors in which Chinese stocks rose this week were coal, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. This week, the weekly average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose by 0.7bp, and the weekly average yield of 10-year CDB bonds rose by 0.9bp.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
