The growth rate setting of “about 5.5%” has both flexibility and space. The economic growth target for 2022 is set at “about 5.5%, lower than last year, which is in line with our forward-looking prediction of the economic growth target. On the one hand, taking into account the base effect and the complex environment outside China, this growth target puts” steady growth “in a more prominent position, emphasizes” structural adjustment and reform “and speeds up the transformation of the development mode; On the other hand, we still need to maintain the economic growth rate of 5.5% this year. We still have confidence in economic growth, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and achieve “medium and high growth on a high base”. In terms of setting sub indicators, the targets of employment, inflation, grain production and special debt limit of local governments are the same as those in 2021. The investment arrangement in the central budget has increased, the deficit rate continues to decrease, and there are no specific quantitative targets for energy consumption this year. The setting of various indicators reflects the characteristics of “stability” and consolidates the positive results achieved last year. This report mentioned that “the external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain”. There are two major overseas risks that need special attention this year: the tightening wave in the context of global inflation and geopolitical risks.
Fiscal enthusiasm: focusing on “steady growth”, improving efficiency is the key. Finance will gradually return to normalization and improve efficiency, accuracy and sustainability. The deficit ratio fell to about 2.8%, ensuring the enthusiasm of this year’s finance from the two lines of revenue and expenditure. From the perspective of income, it is expected to continue to grow this year, and it is planned to arrange 3.65 trillion yuan of special bonds for local governments; From the perspective of expenditure, the central government will bring more funds into the direct range and optimize the expenditure structure. This year, the investment in the central budget is 640 billion yuan, an increase of 4.92%, the fastest growth rate since 2020. In addition, this year’s fee and tax cuts will continue to be implemented with greater efforts, focusing on small and medium-sized enterprises. This time, it is again mentioned that “infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance”. Major projects, new infrastructure and the transformation of old public facilities will be the focus of investment. Risk prevention and healthy development of real estate will work together.
Sound currency: credit easing and leverage stabilization go hand in hand, so we still need to pay attention to risk prevention. The prudent monetary policy reflects the growth of total amount, excellent structure and wide credit. It is expected that the growth rate of social financing stock this year will be about 11%. At the same time, we will give play to the driving role of structural monetary policy tools, guide the flow of funds to key areas and weak links, and accurately support small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development. Keep the macro leverage ratio basically stable, and it is expected that the leverage ratio space may be relaxed this year. The meeting reiterated to strengthen cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation, coordinate monetary and fiscal policies, and make efforts to stabilize growth; At the same time, we will continue to prevent and resolve major risks, focusing on external shocks, local implicit debt risks, real estate risks and small and medium-sized bank risks.
Other deployment priorities in the government work report. Deployment 1: strengthen strategic scientific and technological forces. Digital economy is the highlight. We will promote 5g applications, industrial Internet and digital economic governance from the perspective of improving basic innovation ability, enterprise scientific and technological innovation ability and manufacturing core competitiveness; Deployment 2: upgrade the traditional consumption, integrate Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) deeply, support the consumption of new energy vehicles, green smart appliances in the countryside and trade in the old for the new, promote the recovery of life service consumption, develop new consumption formats and new models, and stimulate the consumption potential of the sinking market; Deployment 3: clean energy transformation, orderly promote “double carbon”, based on resource endowment, adhere to the first establishment and then destruction, overall planning, and promote the low-carbon transformation of energy. Adhering to the new strategy of energy security, it is expected that the promotion of the “double carbon” goal this year will not be too radical, and the overall rhythm is orderly and appropriate; Deployment 4: in the new development stage, the work of “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” will promote the overall revitalization of rural areas, ensure food security, protect cultivated land and revitalize the seed industry. At the same time, it also emphasizes improving the level of agricultural machinery and equipment.
Risk tip: economic recovery is less than expected, inflation is higher than expected, and geopolitical risk.
