Focus this week:
The United States added 678000 non-agricultural employment after the quarter adjustment in February, with a previous value of 481000 and a market expectation of 400000; The unemployment rate was 3.8%, the previous value was 4.0%, and the market expected 3.9%.
Hourly salary increased by 0.03% month on month, the previous value was 0.7%, and the market expected 0.5%; The year-on-year increase was 5.1%, the previous value was 5.5%, and the market expectation was 5.8%. The labor participation rate was 62.3%, and the former value was 62.2%. The employment rate was 59.9%, up from 59.7%.
As of the closing on March 4, the yield of 10-year US bonds fell 8bp to 1.78%; The S & P 500 index fell 0.53% and the Dow Jones index fell 0.53%; The NASDAQ fell 1.66%.
Core view:
In February, the U.S. job market remained resilient, with 678000 new non-agricultural workers, and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. The main contributions were leisure and hotel industry, professional and business services, health care industry and construction industry. Looking ahead, the employment market will maintain a strong recovery against the background of the weakening epidemic. The salary growth rate in February was lower than expected, or due to the acceleration of labor supply, which slowed down the pressure of further upward wages. However, the labor participation rate has been repaired slowly, raising the stickiness of wages. As for the rhythm of the Fed's overall monetary policy this year, we maintain the view that the Fed's interest rate hike comes first, with an interest rate hike of 25bp in March and a slower pace in the second half of the year.
Overseas observation:
The yield of us 10-year Treasury bonds fell and inflation expectations rose; The term spread of us 10-year and 2-year treasury bonds fell. The assets of the Federal Reserve decreased and the assets of the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank increased.
Overseas policy:
In the second round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, the two sides reached an agreement on the establishment of humanitarian channels; The EU has implemented a series of severe sanctions against Russia, and the EU is increasingly worried about the problems brought by sanctions to the EU itself; French President macron officially announced his re-election on March 3 local time; The number of newly confirmed cases of covid-19 in South Korea exceeded 260000 for the first time, and the number of deaths reached a new high.
Global assets:
This week, the global stock market was divided, with the NASDAQ index falling 1.14% and the S & P 500 falling 0.48%. European stock markets generally fell, while Asian stock markets tended to diverge.
China Watch:
Since March 2022, upstream: crude oil prices have increased month on month, the average price of thermal coal has decreased month on month, the average price of coking coal has increased month on month, and the prices of copper and aluminum have increased month on month. Midstream: the cement price index fell month on month, the rebar price fell month on month, and the inventory decreased year on year. Downstream: trend differentiation of pig price, vegetable price and fruit price. Liquidity: the yield of ten-year Treasury bonds rose compared with the end of last month.
China's policy: the people's Bank of China will hold a video conference on macro Prudential Management in 2022 to deploy the tasks of the current and next stage; The tax postponement policy was implemented for six months, and small, medium-sized and micro enterprises in the manufacturing industry received tax postponement support again; In 2021, the report card of the government work report was released, and all 22 quantitative index tasks were completed.
Risk tip: the continuous fermentation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has impacted the economic expectation; Covid-19 epidemic spread more widely than expected.
