Core view
Two week performance of the sector: in the past two weeks (2021.12.13-2021.12.24), CSI 300 fell by 2.65%, gem index fell by 4.89%, and consumer service (CITIC) index fell by 3.84%. Compared with CSI 300, the relative income was – 1.19%, ranking 27th among CITIC’s 29 sub industries. Among the molecular sectors, the tourism and leisure sector fell by 3.97% in the past two weeks, the hotel and catering sector rose by 1.65% in the past two weeks, the education sector fell by 7.95% in the past two weeks, and the comprehensive service sector fell by 2.82% in the past two weeks.
Weekly tracking of individual stocks: 1) in terms of the rise and fall of individual stocks, the five stocks with the highest share price increase in recent two weeks are Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) / Tongdao Liepin / Haobai holding / Xiabu Xiabu / China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) ; 2) In terms of capital flow, in the past two weeks, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) / Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) / Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) / Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) showed capital inflow to the north, and Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) / China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) / Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) showed capital outflow to the north. In terms of the subject matter of Hong Kong stocks, the tea of jiumaojiu / Haidilao / Naixue in the past two weeks shows an inflow of funds going south, and sipping sipping shows an outflow of funds going south.
Industry highlights: (1) the list of the first batch of demonstration cases of developing smart tourism and improving the degree of aging adaptation was released. (2) the “beauty world” of Mission Hills duty-free city in Haikou, Shenzhen was grandly unveiled, and many international brands entered Hainan for the first time. (3) South Korea cancelled the $5000 tax-free limit for departure, stimulated tax-free consumption and attracted overseas consumption.
Important announcements of A-share social service listed companies: (1) China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : the company plans to acquire 100% equity of China Hong Kong China Travel Asset Management Co., Ltd. with RMB 126 million in cash. Hong Kong China Travel assets company has the qualification to operate duty-free foreign exchange commodities, and can operate foreign exchange duty-free shops, that is, local duty-free shops for supplementary purchase in China. At present, the company does not have this type of duty-free shop. After the completion of this transaction, it will help the company further integrate tax-free resources and consolidate and improve the company’s tax-free business layout; (2) Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : proposal on the company’s affiliates providing loans to wholly-owned subsidiaries the board of directors agreed to extend the original loan term for 3 years and change it into a revolving credit loan within the validity period, and the maximum principal amount of the revolving loan at any time point shall not exceed 500 million euros. (3) Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) : Red Star Holdings has pledged its A-Shares to China Huarong Asset Management Company.
Investment proposal and investment object
In the past two weeks, the newly confirmed cases in China remained high, but the epidemic situation in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen was relatively stable; The Ministry of culture and tourism announced that the inter provincial team tourism and “air ticket + Hotel” business in land border port cities will be suspended until March 15 next year, and many governments also advocate local festivals on New Year’s day and Spring Festival. We believe that with the Winter Olympics approaching, epidemic prevention and travel control measures are likely to be further tightened, and the recovery degree of offline service industry data such as wine, tourism and catering on New Year’s day and spring festival may be limited. However, we need to emphasize that the market expectation has become more and more sufficient. At the current time, we don’t have to worry too much about the epidemic situation. We should pay more attention to the changes of the company’s own relative competitiveness and be optimistic about the left configuration opportunities.
Tax free sector: the revenue side of the tax-free leader in the third quarter was affected by the summer epidemic, and the gross profit margin was greatly reduced due to the increase of discount promotion and the decline of online proportion, resulting in the lower than expected performance at the actual operation level, and the stock price was also greatly adjusted. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, under the passenger flow resistance, Hainan’s sales have still recovered steadily since October. We believe that with the cold weather, Hainan has entered the peak tourism season, the opening of phase II of Meilan Airport and the strength of online integration, Q4 revenue is expected to recover significantly; The promotion continues, and the gross profit margin of Q4 may still be under pressure, but thanks to the increase in the proportion of offline and high-quality products, the gross profit margin is expected to improve compared with Q3 month on month.
Hotel sector: it is recommended to pay attention to Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258, buy), Huazhu group-s (01179, not rated). In terms of recovery, the epidemic situation in many places throughout the country in the fourth quarter will still have an impact on the recovery of RevPAR, but the range is less than that in summer due to the low base number; In terms of opening stores, the expansion of leading stores in the third quarter has been steadily promoted. Although the epidemic in the fourth quarter has a certain impact on the confidence of franchisees, it will further accelerate the clearance of small and medium-sized single hotels, and the supply pattern is expected to be further improved; Overseas, Omicron has recently made new cases in Britain, France and other European countries to a new high, and the recovery and fluctuation of overseas demand side has increased. However, for the whole fourth quarter, the performance of overseas business may be dragged down or better than expected. From the perspective of business model, demand resilience or growth, we believe that hotels belong to the early cycle varieties of post epidemic recovery, and the impact of the epidemic on stock prices is gradually passivated. It is recommended to closely track the progress of opening stores and the progress of medium and high-end brands in the future.
Scenic spot sector: it is recommended to pay attention to Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (300144, buy), Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) (603136, overweight). Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) the performance of the third quarterly report is better than expected, once again highlighting the efficient operation efficiency. However, this round of epidemic has led to the fusing of multi provincial tourism, and it is expected that the Q4 performance will still be affected. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of low-level allocation; At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) benefiting from the increase in the proportion of peripheral tourism and leisure tourism.
Catering sector: it is recommended to pay attention to Helen (09869, not rated) and jiumaojiu (09922, not rated). According to channel feedback, submarine fishing In November, the same store of jiumaojiu (Taier) and hailun company recovered to about 70%, 80% and 90% in the same period of 19. Under the influence of the spread of multi-point epidemic, the passenger flow is still restrained, but the recovery speed of various brands gradually widens the gap. Based on the long-term development tone of “cost-effective products + space + service” replacing the nighttime entertainment demand of the sinking market, For the medium-term growth logic of “accelerating the opening of stores + highly standardized operation + strong promotion of brand potential” and the short-term business resilience of leading peers in recovery level during the epidemic, we suggest paying attention to Helen’s (09869, not rated) and jiumaojiu (9922. HK, not rated) with more stable model of note stores and multi brand incubation potential.
Risk statement
Systemic risks, sudden factors, individual stock mergers and acquisitions do not meet expectations, etc
