Fixed asset investment in manufacturing remained at a relatively high level, and the demand for general equipment in the middle reaches remained stable. In the past 20 years, the completed investment in fixed assets of industrial enterprises decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed the number of digits; From January to November 2021, the year-on-year growth rate reached 13.7%. Although the change of year-on-year growth rate has continued to decline since the beginning of the year, it is mainly related to the low base effect in the first quarter. Considering that the growth rate at the end of 20 years has returned to a more normal level compared with 19 years, we believe that the current fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry remains at a relatively high level.
In November, the growth rate of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output rebounded significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate of CNC machine tools continued to slow down in the second half of the year. In November, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was 31900 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 27.9% and a month on month increase of 17.3%; From January to November of 21, the cumulative output was 330100 sets, with a year-on-year increase of 49%, and the output reached a record high in the same period in history; At the same time, since the second half of the year, the year-on-year growth rate of CNC machine tool production has slowed down significantly. In November, the year-on-year growth rate of metal cutting machine tool production was only 9.09%, which fell to single digits for the first time in the whole year.
Export restrictions affect the annual sales growth of forklifts, and the demand for injection molding machines tends to be flat in the second half of the year. In November 2021, the forklift industry achieved sales of 87700 units, with a year-on-year increase of 2.03%. The year-on-year and month on month growth slowed significantly. We believe that the superposition of high base and export restrictions in the early stage will affect the annual sales of forklifts. In addition, through the long-term tracking of the industrial chain, the demand of the injection molding machine industry tends to be flat in the second half of the year compared with the first half of the year.
There is still much room for price reduction and cost reduction in the industry, and the large volume of high-power lasers will be a highlight next year. Considering the increasing market share of domestic laser manufacturers, we believe that the most intense stage of price competition has passed, but there is still huge room for price reduction and cost reduction in the industry. The future development of the industry mainly depends on the rhythm of the decline between the price and cost of laser manufacturers. As far as the laser industry is concerned next year, the 10000 watt high-power laser is expected to further increase in volume. According to the research results of relevant industrial chains, it is expected that the sales of medium and low-power lasers are expected to maintain a stable growth next year, and the sales of 10000 watt high-power lasers are expected to usher in the explosive stage of doubling growth.
In the overall direction, we suggest focusing on the logic varieties of strong individual stocks such as Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) , Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) . 1) Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) : China’s leading enterprise of laser cutting control system, supported by the industry demand, the domestic substitution of high-power products of the company is accelerated, and the growth space of intelligent cutting head and welding Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) motion control system is opened; 2) Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) : China’s leading enterprise of general speed reducers, with steady growth of general middle-end speed reducers and active expansion to high-end / special categories, the 100 billion track company has broad growth space; 3) Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) : the production capacity is in good condition. The gradual implementation of the project of raising and investing 40 million NC blades will strongly promote the release of future performance. Under the background of accelerating the localization process of cutting tools, the company, as one of the leading manufacturers of NC cutting tools in China, has the performance of fist products that catch up with Japan and South Korea.
Risk tip: macroeconomic recovery is less than expected; Overseas exports recovered less than expected
