Zhou's view: the two sessions strengthened the expectation of steady growth and paid attention to the follow-up policies of registration system and individual pension
The government work report has set a growth target of 5.5% of GDP, strengthened the expectation of steady growth, improved the risk appetite of the equity market and benefited from the subject matter of broad credit. We continue to recommend Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) , which benefits from broad credit, has obvious characteristics of value shares and has its own long logic. At the same time, from the annual report and the first quarterly report, the performance of securities companies with the main line of wealth management and the head with obvious comprehensive advantages will still maintain a good boom, with good valuation matching and opportunities on the left. In the government work report, it is clear that "fully implement the stock issuance registration system" and "continue to standardize the development of the third pillar endowment insurance". The comprehensive registration system is beneficial to all businesses of securities companies. The personal pension policy is expected to bring incremental funds to public funds and insurance products. The implementation of the above policies within the year will bring sector opportunities. Pay attention to the progress of the policy, China Securities News reported, Detailed rules related to the personal pension system are expected to be issued recently.
Securities companies: in January, the fund maintained a net subscription, maintained a growth rate higher than expected, and the profit of securities companies still maintained a good boom. (1) the newly established stock + mixed fund was 15.6 billion this week, with a month on month increase of + 62%, which improved for two consecutive weeks. The newly established fund this week was 40.8 billion, with a month on month increase of + 223%. It is expected that the new issuance of debt base will be better. China Foundation Association disclosed on March 3 that at the end of January, the whole market partial stock fund (stock + mixed) held 8.07 trillion, a month on month ratio of - 6.5%, and non goods held 15.83 trillion, a month on month ratio of - 1.6%, which were better than our previous expectations. In the market environment in which the partial stock fund index fell by 10% in January, the scale of public funds was resilient and continued the net subscription. At the end of January, the share of partial stock funds (stocks + mixed funds) in the whole market was 5.86 trillion, with a month on month increase of + 3%. Under the cold of new development in January, the growth of subscription share accounted for the dominant position of new capital inflows. (2) At present, we are not pessimistic about the brokerage sector. We believe that the long-term logic of wealth management still exists. In the short term, the profit growth rate of big wealth management with high contribution of public offering profits in the sector and head brokerage with outstanding comprehensive advantages will be better than the industry average; At the same time, the valuation of the core target fell significantly, and the valuation and profit matched well. Recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and benefit Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares).
Insurance: pay attention to the opportunities brought by the construction of the third pillar pension
(1) on March 2, China Securities News reported that relevant institutions disclosed that at present, the industry has prepared corresponding systems and completed several rounds of tests. The personal pension system is roughly divided into four layers, including personal pension accounts with tax incentives, personal pension bank accounts Asset information system conforming to the policy and sales institutions with the qualification of asset sales conforming to the policy. On February 21, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a document to expand the pilot scope of exclusive commercial endowment insurance, and the subsequent implementation of individual pension policies may bring incremental funds to endowment insurance products. (2) At present, there is no sign of improvement in the insurance liability side, and the growth of property insurance is expected to exceed expectations. At present, the opportunity is mainly driven by the improvement expectation of the asset side and the trading style. The recovery of long-term interest rate and the improvement of real estate chain risk drive the expectation of asset side repair. The subject with greater flexibility on the investment side is the main line at this stage. Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has more room for asset side repair, is recommended, Recommend China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , which is leading in transformation, and benefit China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Property Insurance and AIA.
Combination of beneficial objects
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) ;
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ; Insurance: Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China property insurance, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , AIA.
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
