Investment advice
This week’s view: the 22 year government work report emphasizes steady growth, promoting consumption and expanding domestic demand, and the recovery of demand is expected to accelerate. Specifically, the consumption related policies in the work report mainly include: 1) strive to stabilize the macro-economic market and keep the economic operation in a reasonable range. The newly increased financial resources should sink to the grass-roots level, mainly used to implement the policies of helping enterprises to relieve poverty, stabilizing employment and ensuring people’s livelihood, promote consumption and expand demand. 2) Support for the implementation of new tax and fee policies. Comprehensive consideration should be given to providing cash flow support for enterprises, promoting consumption and investment, vigorously improving the value-added tax rebate system, and implementing large-scale tax rebate for the amount of tax retained. 3) We will strengthen the driving force of domestic demand on economic growth and promote a sustained recovery in consumption. Promote the increase of residents’ income through multiple channels, improve the income distribution system and enhance the consumption capacity; Improve the quality of products and services, strengthen the protection of consumers’ rights and interests, strive to meet the needs of the masses and enhance the willingness to consume. Overall, we believe that consumption is an indispensable link in steady growth. Under the background of slow recovery of consumption, we aim to improve consumption capacity and enhance consumption willingness. It is expected that the recovery of consumption scene and the pace of consumption upgrading are expected to accelerate, and the food and beverage sector will also benefit from consumption promotion.
This week’s special topic: 22q1 performance prospect combing. 1) Baijiu: the demand for high-end Baijiu is stable, and liquor companies generally control the pace. Q1 is expected to continue to grow in high quality and steady growth. Real estate liquor benefited from the increased demand of the Spring Festival, especially the performance of Huijiu Q1 was generally better than the early prediction, and it is expected that the structural upgrading has entered an accelerated period; The secondary high-end generally controls the rhythm in 21q4 and accumulates strength for the coming year. During the Spring Festival, Henan, Guangdong and Zhejiang were slightly affected by the epidemic, Shandong’s dynamic sales were stable and improved (some areas were disturbed by the flow of goods), and Hunan and other base camps were basically stable. We believe that a good start can still be expected. 2) Beer: the data from January to February were good, the shipment at the circulation end was smooth, and Q4 was superimposed to remove inventory and control the rhythm. In addition, the ASP of Q1 statement end of some liquor enterprises is expected to show the effect of early price increase, and the material pressure is stable month on month. 3) Dairy products: with good dynamic sales during the Spring Festival, healthy inventory after the festival and strong high-end demand, the leading Q1 is expected to achieve more than double-digit growth. 4) Condiments: from January to February, the demand gradually recovered, the dynamic sales were in a reasonable range, and the price increase made a smooth transition. The cost control is reasonable, and the overall Q1 revenue and profit of the industry are expected to grow steadily.
Plate view: weekly drinking water sector continued callback trend, we think the Baijiu sector stable fundamentals to good trend has not changed, the fundamentals of non wine sector is also better than the ring. The recent adjustment is expected to be: 1) the volatile overseas situation and the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine have led to the rise of global risk aversion; 2) China’s epidemic situation is repeated in many places, and market expectations are under pressure on consumption. We suggest paying attention to the layout opportunities under the correction of the sector. The impact of overseas turmoil on domestic demand is controllable. We are still firmly optimistic about the current allocation value of the sector.
Baijiu: the current channel inventory and price are still benign. The recent sector adjustment is mainly dominated by the Baijiu sector itself, and the capital surface factor has catalyzed the fluctuation of the sector to some extent. Baijiu consumption is relatively low in the current season, and the repeated impact on the epidemic is expected to be controllable. At present, it is still the first to promote high-end wine, especially Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , which has deep certainty and moat. The gap between supply and demand at the market side is still strong, and the potential of multi-dimensional reform such as marketing is expected to be released. At the same time, we suggest paying attention to the strong demand for real estate wine and the performance elasticity of the sub high end.
Popular products: 1) beer: we reiterate that the beer sector will have β Sexual opportunity, the weakening impact of the epidemic is expected to boost the increase in peak season; The transmission of price increase is smooth, and the profit elasticity in peak season is released; The trend of high-end capacity expansion has been established, and the leading enterprises are prosperous and upward. 2) Dairy products: the sales of liquid milk during the Spring Festival are good. It is expected that the demand for dairy products will remain stable in 22 years. Appropriate fee control and structural improvement can drive the increase of profit margin Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) 22 years put forward higher requirements for profits, and the valuation has a strong cost performance. It is recommended to continue to pay attention. 3) Condiments: we believe that the recovery of catering demand and the transmission of price rise are deterministic. We suggest weakening the short-term performance requirements, focusing on the marginal improvement brought by demand recovery and cost reduction, and focusing on the leading targets in the industry.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk / repeated epidemic risk / regional market competition risk
