Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) (603877)
Key investment points
It is a multi brand leisure and fashion clothing company focusing on the mid-range positioning of youth fashion, covering the fields of men's clothing, women's clothing, children's clothing and so on. The Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) brand was founded in 1996. In 2015, it began the younger transformation of men's and women's clothing, boldly transformed the target customer group, positioned in the mid-range leisure fashion market, and has many brands, such as Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) women's clothing, Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) men's clothing, leting girls' clothing, minipeace children's clothing and so on. In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue was RMB 7.4 billion, and the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 550 million. In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue of Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) women's clothing / Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) men's clothing / leting girls' clothing / minipeace children's clothing accounted for 44% / 29% / 13% / 12% respectively.
The concentration of China's women's wear industry is low, and the diversified and changeable consumer fashion demand puts forward new demands for the quick reaction of enterprises: Based on the retail sales data in 2020, the CR10 of China's women's wear market is 8.2%, Cr20 is 12.5%, and the UNIQLO brand with the highest share accounts for only 1.8%. Much lower than other segments. The reason behind it is mainly because the entry threshold of women's clothing is low, and because the fashion trend of women's clothing changes every year, it is not easy to do a good job of the brand because of the high requirements for the quick reaction ability of the brand. Using digital means to strengthen consumer insight and adopting "quick reaction" mode to build a flexible supply chain has become the key to women's clothing brand breakthrough.
Digital drive full link fast response, accurately capture demand and improve operation efficiency. Taking customers as the center, the company strives to create a complete data-driven commodity development and fast response flexible supply chain, so as to quickly meet consumers' demand for the latest fashion, increase the turnover of goods inventory and improve business efficiency. 1) At the development and design side: big data has insight into consumer needs and trends, and quickly organizes design. 2) At the production and supply side: estimate the demand for goods, flexible production, accurate distribution, and promote the rapid and efficient circulation of goods. 3) At the retail end of marketing: Online big data supports precision marketing. Grasp micro-blog, B station, Xiaohong book, jitter and other tiktok to expand the brand voice. In 2021, the company issued convertible bonds to raise 800 million yuan and continued to promote digital transformation.
Direct operation and efficiency, joined the expansion scale, the shaking platform performance was tiktok: offline: as of the third quarter of 2021, the company has 5078 stores under the cable, including 1653 Direct stores and 3425 distribution stores. By brand, Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) women's wear / Ningbo Peacebird Fashion Co.Ltd(603877) men's wear / leting girls' wear / minipeace children's wear have 1910, 1518, 728 and 791 respectively. At the direct level, the company will focus more on the improvement of store efficiency. It has basically recovered after the epidemic at the franchise level, and will accelerate the new expansion of stores in the future. Tiktok tiktok: since 2021, the company has taken the lead in the layout of live direct business providers. The side also verified the company's keen sensitivity to the change of terminal consumption. 2021H1, the company's retail sales volume at vibrato reached 300 million yuan, and the proportion of retail sales increased to 18% on the line. The company has tiktok's obvious first mover advantage and accumulated rich experience in operation. The company's online channels may usher in the second growth curve.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the brand matrix is rich, the consumer coverage is complete, the company uses digital technology to drive commodity development, and quickly meets the demand of consumers' fashion. At the same time, the company strengthens the layout of tiktok and other live broadcast providers, and has the advantage of new media operation. We expect that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 920 million / 1.1 billion / 1.3 billion from 2021 to 2023. The latest closing price corresponds to 15 / 12 / 10 times of PE from 2021 to 2023, which is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation is repeated and the consumption boom is declining, the development of e-commerce channels is less than expected, the promotion of digital transformation of science and technology is less than expected, and the risk of inventory falling price, etc.
