Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rose by – 0.11% and – 2.93% respectively, and the retail trade (CITIC) index rose by 0.22%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (39 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 5.28% and – 12.36% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 5.05%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by 0.22%, ranking ninth among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, 12 of the 29 CITIC first-class industries rose. The top three industries were coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and transportation, with an increase of 9.95%, 3.65% and 3.29% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 5.05%, ranking 14th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, 6 of the 29 CITIC primary industries have risen. The top three industries are coal, banking and non-ferrous metals, with an increase of 19.95%, 3.67% and 2.14% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were professional market, home appliance 3C chain and trade, with an increase of 2.70%, 0.28% and 0.03% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are professional market, gold jewelry and trade, with an increase of 1.70%, – 0.93% and – 2.78% respectively.
In the past week, 65 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) rose, one company was flat and 27 companies fell. In the past week, the top three companies were Chang Chun Eurasia Group Co.Ltd(600697) , Shandong Hiking International Co.Ltd(600735) and Shenyang Cuihua Gold And Silver Jewelry Co.Ltd(002731) , with increases of 17.31%, 14.60% and 14.39% respectively. Since 2022, 48 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) have increased and 45 have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Renrenle Commercial Group Co.Ltd(002336) and Shandong Hiking International Co.Ltd(600735) , with an increase of 124.91%, 45.31% and 41.65% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
The recovery process of the industry will be affected by the repeated epidemic in the short term. In the past week, patients with covid-19 epidemic have emerged in Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places. We estimate that there will still be great pressure on offline sales in March. The first quarter performance of both optional and mandatory products will be negatively affected. In addition, the overseas market has fluctuated greatly recently, and the decline of the Internet e-commerce sector has accelerated. We suggest investors to wait and see, supplemented by operation. At present, the overseas situation is not clear, which may drag down the valuation repair progress of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks. On the whole, we are still optimistic about the gold jewelry sector. Since the beginning of the year, the gold price has increased by nearly 5%. The sinking of the sales channel of gold jewelry will also be conducive to the performance growth of gold jewelry companies. We expect that the gold jewelry sub industry in the first quarter of 2022 will be a sub sector with high prosperity in the retail channel. It is suggested that investors can still configure on bargain hunting. Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of residents’ consumption demand did not meet expectations, the post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected
