Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) (603396)
Key investment points
Photovoltaic hjt equipment: PECVD mass production, with an average efficiency of 24.4%, leading the industry; Build HJT lab and accelerate R & D according to official WeChat official account of Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , HJT PECVD was used to verify production line.
1) Efficiency data: the PECVD equipment of the company was installed and debugged in Jinneng technology in August, and the efficiency of the battery of the first process flow chip reached 22.8%. After more than three months of continuous optimization, the average efficiency of 166 size batteries produced by the company’s hjt equipment has reached 24.38%, and the average efficiency of the optimal batch has reached 24.55%, which is at the leading level in the industry, basically the same as the original production line of Jinneng (Jinneng is the first enterprise in China to enter the hjt battery industry, using application material PECVD equipment).
2) Other core data: the average mass production on pressure VOC of the battery produced by the company’s hjt equipment is > 745mv (up to 748.3mv, which represents the level of the equipment in the key film passivation process. According to statistics, only a few manufacturers have reached it before), the filling factor FF is > 84.5%, and the efficiency distribution of more than 90% falls between 24% – 24.5% (the convergence of efficiency distribution is very high, which represents the stability of mass production of equipment).
3) Build hjt pilot test line with target conversion efficiency of more than 25%. The high efficiency battery & module R & D laboratory is planned to be put into use in the first quarter of 2022, which is an important guarantee for the R & D speed of the company’s hjt equipment. Including: high efficiency battery process and equipment technology with conversion efficiency of more than 25% (including double-sided microcrystalline hjt, TOPCON, new metallization scheme, etc.) and silver less and silver free component technology and equipment, etc. 4) technical strength: the company and German h2gemini (the core members have worked in applied materials, meyerberg, Schmidt, etc.) set up Jinchen Gemini as a joint venture, with leading technical strength + equity mechanism in the industry. PECVD equipment has the advantages of large capacity and low cost, and the progress is expected to exceed the market expectation. The company has issued 380 million fixed increase for the development of photovoltaic heterojunction PECVD equipment, which will form an annual production capacity of 20 equipment.
Completion of equity incentive Grant: bind the core personnel of the company; The performance will be accelerated in the next year and the next, with a year-on-year increase of 50% / 60%
1) The company’s equity incentive has been granted. The first grant includes: stock option: accounting for 73% of the total incentive grant, and the exercise price is 117.13 yuan / share. Restricted stock: accounting for 27% of the total incentive grant proportion, and the grant price is 58.57 yuan / share.
2) Incentive performance target value: the performance target values from 2021 to 2023 are RMB 1 / 1.5/240 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20% / 50% / 60%. The company’s performance accelerated in 2022, and the judgment increment mainly comes from photovoltaic cell equipment (including TOPCON equipment and heterojunction equipment).
TOPCON equipment: help the highest efficiency of 25.53% obtained by Ningbo Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences; Tubular PECVD has been imported from three customers, and the company TOPCON has imported tubular PECVD from three customers in total: Jingke, Jingao, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) . The average efficiency of mass production n-type TOPCON battery is more than 24% (the maximum efficiency is 24.5%). At the same time, it has also made a breakthrough in the development of two in one equipment. It is one of the few mass production core equipment with completely independent intellectual property rights developed by overseas equipment manufacturers in China. In November, the highest efficiency record of 25.53% obtained by Ningbo Institute of Chinese Academy of Sciences was strongly supported by Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) and its subsidiary Suzhou Tuosheng.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1 / 17 / 250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25% / 65% / 45%, corresponding to 142 / 86 / 60 times of PE. Considering the scarcity of the company’s photovoltaic heterojunction equipment, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tip: photovoltaic demand is lower than expected; The propulsion speed of heterojunction battery is not as expected; The downstream expansion was less than expected.
