Coking coal prices are expected to run smoothly. According to wind data, as of March 4, the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 2930 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. As of March 3, the hard coking coal index of Fengjing mine in Australia was US $529 / ton, up US $48.75/ton on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, most coal mines have maintained normal operation recently. Due to strict inspection of the impact of environmental protection, some substandard coal mines in Inner Mongolia may stop production or shutdown, and the supply of coking coal market may be tightened. The downstream coke price has been raised for two rounds, the bullish mood of coke has not decreased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has been improved. Moreover, the imported coal has been affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the overseas coal price continues to be high, and the supply of imported coking coal is limited. Overall, coking coal prices are expected to be strong.
Coke price is expected to be strong. According to wind data, as of March 4, the factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke closed at 3200 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of Linfen grade II coke rose to 2880 yuan / ton, compared with that of Linfen grade II coke market. In terms of ports, the price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary metallurgical coke was 3310 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, with the adjustment of coke price, the profit of coke enterprises rebounded slightly, the enthusiasm for starting work increased, and the coal price at the superimposed raw material end continued to rise, which played a certain supporting role in coke price. On the demand side, the resumption of production of the steel plant is good, the demand for coke continues to improve, and the steel plant increases the efforts to replenish the warehouse. On the whole, the demand for replenishment of steel mills is strong recently, the mentality of coke enterprises has gradually improved, and the coke supply and demand is oriented to good development. It is expected that the coke market may be strong in the short term.
The release of demand supported the rising price of thermal coal. As of March 4, wind data showed that the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 1308 yuan / ton, up 195 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of supply, as the two sessions are approaching and the coal mine safety and environmental protection inspection continues, the supply of high-quality power coal is still tight. In terms of demand, the available days of power plants are at a low level. Although there is long-term cooperative guarantee supply, some power plants still have the purchase demand of market coal. In the downstream of non electricity, the demand is also releasing rapidly after the resumption of production and work, and the pace of replenishing inventory is accelerating, supporting the rise of coal prices. Under the continuous catalysis of “stable growth” in the later stage, the downstream demand is expected to remain high and the price support is strong.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are expected to usher in value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) The coking coal sector is expected to benefit from the demand growth driven by infrastructure investment. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) .
Risk tips: 1) risk of economic slowdown. 2) Risk of a sharp fall in coal prices. 3) Risk of policy change.
