Main points
This week, the household appliance sector rose by - 3.5%, of which the white electricity / Black electricity / kitchen electricity / small household appliances sector rose by - 3.7% / - 3.4% / - 5.5% / - 2.4% respectively. The overall performance of individual stocks in the sector was weak, and the Hisense Home Appliances Group Co.Ltd(000921) performance of white power sector was good, with a weekly increase of 1.5%; Small household appliances sector Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co.Ltd(603868) , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) performed well, with weekly increases of 3.0% and 1.2%. In terms of raw materials, LME copper, LME aluminum, steel and plastics prices were + 5.5%, + 14.8%, + 1.2% and + 3.3% month on month respectively.
Interpretation of the impact of the two sessions on household appliances: real estate and consumption policies are conducive to the demand for kitchen appliances (including integrated stoves) and small household appliances. In terms of real estate, adhere to the principle of "housing without speculation", and promote the transformation of indemnificatory rental housing and old residential areas. The recovery of real estate policy is expected to benefit the post cycle sector; The transformation of old houses stimulates the demand for kitchen electricity (including integrated stoves). Recently, many cities have reduced the down payment ratio to 20%, reduced the mortgage interest rate, accelerated the pace of mortgage lending, the recovery of policies is expected to drive the improvement of the demand side, and the post cycle sectors of real estate such as white electricity and kitchen electricity are expected to benefit. In addition, the kitchen electricity installation attribute is strong, and the renewal demand brought by the transformation of old urban communities will further expand the kitchen electricity (including integrated stoves) market.
In terms of consumption, we will promote the continuous recovery of consumption, make efforts on both sides of supply and demand, and further improve the consumption scene. Home appliances going to the countryside and improving the construction of rural e-commerce are conducive to the sales of kitchen appliances and small household appliances, and the integrated stove is expected to benefit mainly. The epidemic accelerated consumption scene to online transfer, shaking and playing more tiktok, further accelerating the sinking of electricity providers. The sinking market has become an important thrust for the development of the household electrical appliance market. Home appliances to the countryside and improving the construction of rural e-commerce will further stimulate the sinking market demand. In terms of specific categories, the ownership of household electricity is already high, and the improvement demand of green intelligence is good for household electricity faucets with obvious advantages in product upgrading; However, kitchen appliances and small household appliances still have great development space in the sinking market and have high elasticity. As an integrated stove invented in 2004 and born in the tertiary and tertiary markets, it was originally designed and built specifically for the needs of rural residents. It conforms to the consumption habits of rural residents and has a penetration foundation in rural areas. It is expected to benefit from it.
Investment advice
Looking forward to 2022, the track with strong certainty is preferred among many uncertain factors. It is suggested to grasp two main lines: 1) white electric track with continuous repair of demand and profit. 2) Sweeper track and integrated stove track with both certainty and growth. Intelligent cleaning appliances are in line with consumers' pursuit of quality life and hands-free in the third consumption era. Floor sweeping and mopping products are expected to become the rigid needs of families. Continue to recommend Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , accurately grasp the needs of consumers, adhere to independent research and development, hold high and fight high, and have excellent product and brand power. It is recommended to pay attention to the strong strength of product and technological innovation, speed up the replenishment of marketing weaknesses, and is expected to usher in Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) . The logic of improving the penetration rate of integrated stoves is continuously verified, and Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) , which has long-term vision of leading strategic pattern, strong brand marketing and high-end product positioning and rapid expansion of scale, is continuously recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to the integrated stove leader Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) , which has strong product power and continues to reflect the effectiveness of the change of few owners. Small household appliances sector Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) export profitability improvement and domestic sales growth increase with high certainty. The growth rate of domestic sales in 21q4 rebounded, and the export sales declined due to the impact of shipping. It is expected that the continuous promotion of domestic sales and the expansion of categories will drive the continuous growth of domestic sales revenue. After the mitigation of shipping, the demand for overseas orders is expected to be released, and 22q1 is expected to usher in a performance inflection point. The current valuation level is significantly low, so it is recommended to pay active attention.
Risk tips
The risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of less than expected demand, the risk of repeated outbreaks, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and the risk of chip out of stock and rising prices.
