Main points:
Pig prices fell 0.4% to 12.44 yuan / kg on a weekly basis, and the willingness to fill the column was flat on a weekly basis. ① Pig prices fell 0.4% week on week. On Saturday, the national pig price was 12.44 yuan / kg, down 0.4% on a weekly basis; The average wholesale price of pork in China was 18.63 yuan / kg, with a slight decrease on a weekly basis; This week, the loss of self breeding pigs was 481.8 yuan / head, and the loss of outsourcing piglet breeding was 153.33 yuan / head. ② The proportion of low body reborn pigs dropped again, and the willingness to make up the hurdles was flat on a week-on-week basis. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (2.25-3.3): the proportion of domestic pigs in 90kg nationwide accounted for 7.89%, the week on week ratio decreased by 0.79 percentage points, and the epidemic situation fell back to the bottom area; The market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm this week was 400 yuan / head, which was basically the same on a weekly basis, up 160% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1632 yuan / head, which was the same on a weekly basis, up 31.8% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ The pig price is expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023. The valuation of mainstream companies is in the bottom area, so time can change space. The production capacity inflection point of China’s pig breeding industry appeared in June last year. According to the data of the Ministry of agriculture, the stock of fertile sows in China decreased by 7% from July last year to January this year. Yongyi consulting disclosed that in February this year, the number of fertile sows in China increased by 0.32% month on month, and the number of sows in some regions was in the state of de industrialization. The number of sows was rotated and the backup data of energy conversion was slightly increased. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic, the industry will experience a bottom grinding stage in 2022, and pig prices are expected to enter an upward cycle in 2023. We estimate the average market value of pig enterprises by the expected slaughter volume in 2022, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 5644 yuan, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 5152 yuan, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 2304 yuan, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 2500 yuan and COFCO Jiakang 2214 yuan. The valuation of mainstream listed pig enterprises is in the bottom area, so we suggest to pay active attention.
In January, the renewal volume of Bai Yu’s ancestors increased by 40% year-on-year, and the price of Huang Yu mainly fell week on week. ① In January 2022, the renewal of Baiyu ancestors increased by 39.8% year-on-year. On Friday, the price of white feather chicken was 9650 yuan / ton, up 0.5% week on week. The China Poultry Industry Association announced that in January 2022, 130600 sets of white feather ancestors were renewed nationwide, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8%. We maintain our previous judgment that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal volume increased by 24.3% year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices fell mainly on a weekly basis. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 is second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic”, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 21, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. As of March 4, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast chicken was 5.9 yuan / kg, down 0.2% month on week and 16.8% year-on-year; The average price of medium speed chicken was 6.93 yuan / kg, down 1.3% month on week and 6.2% year-on-year; The average price of chicken fell by 63.6% year-on-year / week, down by 0.2% year-on-year; Black bone chicken was 7.76 yuan / kg, up 1.0% on a weekly basis and down 1.0% year-on-year.
The prosperity of swine vaccine remained low in the first two months, focusing on the progress of non plague vaccine.
In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of batch issuance data of swine vaccine was 27.9% for porcine circadian vaccine, 9.3% for classical swine fever vaccine, 5.1% for foot-and-mouth vaccine, 8.3% for diarrhea vaccine, 14.1% for porcine parvovirus vaccine, 14.7% for highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine and 40.4% for Porcine Pseudorabies vaccine. From January to February 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of batch issuance data of swine vaccine was from high to low: highly pathogenic porcine blue ear vaccine 4.2%, foot-and-mouth vaccine – 11.5%, porcine parvovirus vaccine – 25.5%, porcine circovirus vaccine – 31.4%, diarrhea vaccine – 49.4%, classical swine fever vaccine – 50.3% and Porcine Pseudorabies Vaccine – 67.1%. We believe that the pig price is still at the bottom stage in 2022, and the prosperity of pig vaccine may remain low. It is suggested to focus on the progress of non plague vaccine.
The commercialization of genetically modified organisms is gradually approaching, and the probability of major global Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices continuing to rise sharply is small. ① The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and it is suggested to pay attention to the leader of seed industry. We judge the impact as follows: I) GM corn seeds may be sold in the second half of 2023. The draft of amendments to the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production can be carried out as soon as 2023, and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. II) the corn seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. The promotion area of genetically modified maize in China is expected to reach 400500 million mu. If the gene patent fee of 10 yuan per mu can correspond to a revenue of 4-5 billion yuan, the maize seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. III) seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. ② The Russian Ukrainian war pushed up the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price, and the probability of continued sharp rise in the world’s major Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices is small. The export volume of wheat from Russia and Ukraine is about 55 million tons, accounting for nearly 30% of the global trade volume; The export volume of corn and coarse cereals from Russia and Ukraine is about 33 million tons, accounting for nearly 20% of the global trade volume. The Russian Ukrainian war directly pushed up the international Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price. The consumption ratio of major Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) reservoirs in the world is at the highest level since 16 / 17 years. The February supply and demand report of the US Department of agriculture predicted that in 2021 / 22, the global wheat stock consumption ratio was 35.3%, the global corn stock consumption ratio was 25.3%, and the global soybean stock consumption ratio was 25.1%, all of which were the lowest since 16 / 17. The superposition of fundamental support and the Russian Ukrainian war led to the recent Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price surge. The probability of major Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices in the world continuing to rise sharply is small. Compared with 2007 / 08, the global stock consumption ratio of wheat, corn and soybean was 17.0%, 14.9% and 18.9% respectively, which was far lower than the current level of stock consumption ratio. However, the CBOT soybean price has exceeded the high level in 2008, and the CBOT corn and CBOT wheat prices are only 5% – 10% from the high level in 2008. We judge that the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price may remain relatively high, and the probability of continued sharp rise is small.
China’s pet market has great potential, and the epidemic has dragged down the gradual end.
From 2010 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China’s pet consumption market was as high as 30.9%; In 2020, the scale growth of China’s pet consumption market slowed down to 2% and maintained single digit growth in 2021. We believe that the main reason for the slowdown in 20202021 is that the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic has significantly increased the downward pressure on the economy and delayed the entry of potential PET consumers into the market. However, from the medium and long-term perspective, the penetration rate of pets in China is 17%, while that in the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom and Japan is as high as 68%, 62%, 45% and 38% respectively; The annual consumption expenditure of pet dogs and cats in China is US $869 and US $679 respectively, which are lower than that of major pet breeding countries. China’s pet consumption market has great growth potential. From the perspective of the company, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) is affected by the exchange and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) is affected by the shutdown of the factory in Vietnam. We continue to recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
