Key investment points:
Market review. As of March 4, 2022, Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell by 0.96% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.72 percentage points and ranking 17th among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell 2.89% this month, 1.03 percentage points lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, ranking 26th among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals sector has risen 1.57% year to date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 10.56 percentage points and ranking fifth among Shenwan 31 industries.
As of March 4, 2022, among the sub sectors of the non-ferrous metal industry, the industrial metal sector rose 3.46%, the precious metal sector fell 1.55%, the small metal sector fell 2.49%, the new metal materials sector fell 4.69%, and the energy metal sector fell 5.36%.
Zhou’s view on the nonferrous metals industry. Industrial metals. The situation in Russia and Ukraine continued to deteriorate this week. With Europe and the United States increasing sanctions against Russia, metal supply was restricted again. Under the influence of trade restrictions and energy crisis, the possibility of electrolytic aluminum production reduction in Russia has increased, and aluminum prices rose sharply this week. In terms of copper, Cai Shui No. 40 document was officially implemented. The invoices with a tax rate of 3% received by recycled copper processing enterprises can not enjoy deduction and tax refund, and face a tax increase cost of 10%, which makes it possible for recycled copper enterprises to reduce the dismantling of waste copper and the supply of recycled copper, and instead increase the demand for refined copper. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ), Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) ( Jiangxi Copper Company Limited(600362) ), Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ( Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ). noble metal. On Thursday, March 3 local time, Powell made it clear that although the situation in Russia and Ukraine had brought great uncertainty to the US economy in the short term, he still tended to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March, and stated that the Fed would “do everything to curb inflation”. On March 4, the data released by the US Department of labor showed that the non-agricultural employment data in February increased by 678000, better than the expected 400000, and the unemployment rate was 3.8%, lower than the expected 3.9%, which was good for us dollar assets. The positive sentiment of gold weakened and the overall upward trend was under pressure. Energy metals. The prices of lithium metal and lithium carbonate continued to rise this week, but the rise was slowed down due to the impact of varying degrees of production reduction and maintenance of downstream lithium iron phosphate plants. On February 28, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that we should strengthen resource protection, focus on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately accelerate the development progress of China’s lithium, nickel and other resources, and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and raising prices. At present, the overall lithium resources are still in short supply, and the strong demand in the downstream promotes the price rise of the lithium industry chain. It is recommended to pay attention to Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ( Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ), Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ), Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) ( Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) ), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ( Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ). Rare earth. On March 3, the rare earth office interviewed China rare earth group, China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) group, Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) company and other key rare earth enterprises. The meeting called on relevant enterprises to effectively enhance the awareness of the overall situation and responsibility, correctly grasp the relationship between upstream and downstream, promote and improve the pricing mechanism of rare earth products, jointly guide product prices to return to rationality, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of rare earth industry. Although the first batch of rare earth indicators this year increased by 20% compared with previous years, the supply is still in short supply. This week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide remained at 1100 yuan / kg. Under the condition of high rare earth prices at the beginning of the week, the purchase enthusiasm of downstream orders slowed down, and the rise of rare earth prices was blocked.
Risk tip: the macro economy is not as expected, the geopolitical situation worsens, resulting in limited metal supply, and the price of energy metals and rare earths falls.
