Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: the tone of the two sessions has increased steadily due to the opening of urban policy space
At the two sessions held this week, the relevant statements of the real estate industry in the government work report still focus on “no speculation in real estate” and promoting the steady and healthy development of the industry. In addition, we will also vigorously develop long-term rental housing, affordable housing, old reform and other fields, and the industry orientation will increase steadily; At the local level, Zhengzhou issued 19 new real estate policies to protect the stable development of the local market. This week, the policy direction is combined from point to area, the overall direction remains stable, and the local policy space is further opened.
On March 1, the general office of Zhengzhou Municipal People’s government issued the notice on promoting the virtuous cycle and healthy development of the real estate industry, which mainly put forward improvement measures in supporting reasonable housing demand, improving housing market supply, increasing credit financing support, promoting the construction and transformation of resettlement housing, and optimizing the real estate market environment.
This policy relaxation benefits all participants in the real estate industry and is a comprehensive support for the market environment. Targeted support measures will be taken from multiple dimensions, such as the demand of buyers, the supply of commercial housing market, developer funds, government land transfer and so on. The policy covers a wide range of areas and will support all participants in the market.
Some support measures appeared for the first time in this round of local policy relaxation of “implementing policies for cities”. Among them, the measure of “recognizing the loan but not the house” is implemented for the second set of housing. For families who settle the loan for the first set of housing, the purchase of the second set of commercial housing can be implemented according to the loan policy for the first set of housing, and the down payment ratio can be reduced from 60% to 30%. Zhengzhou is also the first provincial capital city to deregulate “housing and loan recognition”, which will effectively reduce the capital threshold for buyers to improve their needs and further release their improvement needs.
The Zhengzhou policy has both the special background of the flood in 2021 and the dual drive of its own commercial housing market pressure. By the end of 2021, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in Zhengzhou had a year-on-year growth rate of – 24%, the supply-demand ratio was 1.26, the stock of generalized commercial housing was 20.95 million square meters, and the de urbanization cycle was 24.6 months. All indicators performed poorly in the middle of key first and second tier cities.
Based on the results of urban horizontal comparison, there are some cities with greater market pressure than Zhengzhou, and there is room for local policies to follow up in the future.
When the two sessions were held this week, the real estate industry still takes stability as the core. It is required to adhere to the principle of “housing without speculation”, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote a virtuous cycle of the real estate industry due to urban policies. Stability is still the long-term policy orientation of real estate.
In addition to the word “stability”, there are also new increments: long-term rental housing, affordable housing, old reform and other general directions will develop rapidly. The meeting called for exploring a new development model, adhering to the simultaneous development of rental and purchase, accelerating the development of the long-term rental housing market, and then starting the transformation of a number of old urban areas. In the new housing model, long-term rental housing, affordable housing and old reform will get new opportunities and become a new growth point for industry development and social and economic construction.
The economic growth target is set at 5.5%, and it is required to prevent and resolve major risks. Under the background of stable growth and risk prevention, the bottom of the real estate market is solid, and it is expected to continue to improve in the future.
Data tracking (February 21-february 27):
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities is – 31 PCT and – 26 PCT in one week and cumulative year-on-year respectively, first tier cities – 27 PCT, – 22 PCT, second tier cities – 74 PCT, – 65 PCT, third tier cities + 47 PCT and + 24 PCT.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 14 cities was – 27 PCT year-on-year in a single week and – 29 PCT year-on-year in total.
Land market: the cumulative construction area of land supply in 100 cities is + 11 PCT year-on-year, the cumulative construction area of transaction is – 23 PCT year-on-year, the cumulative transaction amount is – 60 PCT year-on-year, and the land transaction premium rate is 1.27%.
City market chain comparison: Beijing (- 0.1 PCT), Shanghai (- 24 PCT), Guangzhou (- 7 PCT), Shenzhen (+ 3 PCT), Nanjing (+ 191 PCT), Hangzhou (- 6 PCT), Wuhan (+ 20 PCT) investment strategy: it is recommended to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A and Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Greentown China, etc. under the product-oriented logic.
Risk tip: the sales market is down, some real estate enterprises have a storm of debt default, and the policy is beyond the expected regulation.
