Core view
Market review in February: focus on “steady growth”, and the cement related sectors rose. In February, the building materials sector showed a downward trend of shock. The building materials sector fell by 0.78% in a single month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.17 percentage points. Driven by the expectation of “stable growth” policy, the cement sector performed better, rising by 4.4% in a single month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.01 percentage points, and the glass sector rose slightly by 0.88%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.49 percentage points, Other building materials sectors fell 3.84%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.23 percentage points. Among the sub sectors, the top three sectors were cement pipe (+ 11.51%), cement (+ 4.58%) and glass fiber (+ 3.89%).
The resumption of work after the festival is gradually opened, and attention is paid to the actual implementation of downstream demand. After the Spring Festival, affected by factors such as off-season factors and low-temperature rain and snow weather, the downstream demand of the cement market recovered relatively slowly. Prices rose and fell each other in February, and the overall chain decreased slightly. It is expected that with the rise of temperature, the construction site and mixing plant will gradually return to the normal operating level. With the support of real estate “guaranteed delivery”, the stock of infrastructure projects and the start-up of new construction, The recovery of downstream demand is expected to accelerate gradually; In February, the glass market was dominated by goods preparation in the middle and lower reaches. The actual recovery of overall terminal demand was relatively slow, the downstream operating rate was low, and the new increment of deep processing orders was limited. At present, the industry has entered the stage of social inventory elimination. It is suggested to actively pay attention to the resumption of work and new orders in the downstream; The overall market of glass fiber roving is stable, the demand recovers well after the festival, the supply of thermoplastic products is still tight, the demand side is supported in the short term, and is expected to be further improved in the medium and long term. At present, the price of electronic yarn is mostly just in need of replenishment, and the acceptance capacity of high price sources is still limited. After the short-term price adjustment, it is temporarily stable, and there may still be pressure in the future, but considering the cost support, It is expected that there is little room for price adjustment in the middle and later stages. Key recommended combinations: the key recommended combinations of building materials in March are: Ocean’S King Lighting Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002724) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) . The portfolio yield in February was 4.33%.
Since the economic work conference last December, the central government has set the overall working idea of “stable growth” for 22 years. After January, the market’s worries about the future economic downturn spread. The central bank and the national development and Reform Commission continued to introduce relevant measures to accelerate “steady growth”. In addition, the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine brought more uncertain factors to the market, and the market panic has not been eliminated. In view of the fact that the industry is currently in the post holiday resumption stage, the final strength and elasticity of “steady growth” cannot be falsified, and the market has entered a good window period of “steady growth” in the game of “traditional economic growth kinetic energy”, it is suggested to focus on relevant varieties dominated by infrastructure and real estate demand with high safety margin, and grasp the window period opportunities of cement and glass in the short term, Recommend Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ; At the same time, other building materials with great growth potential in the medium and long term can be appropriately considered. It is recommended that Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) , Ocean’S King Lighting Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002724) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) .
Risk warning: the landing of the project is lower than expected; Supply increased more than expected; The cost rise exceeded expectations.
