The government work report laid the tone of macroeconomic policies for the whole year, with reasonable and sufficient liquidity to escort the A-share market. The government work report puts forward the policy orientation of economic and social development this year: 1) active fiscal policy should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability. The newly increased financial resources should sink to the grass-roots level, mainly used to implement the policies of helping enterprises to relieve poverty, stabilizing employment and ensuring people’s livelihood, promote consumption and expand demand. Establish a normalized direct financial fund mechanism and include 2.8 trillion yuan of central financial funds into the direct scope; 2) Prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. Give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of aggregate and structure, and provide stronger support for the real economy. Expand the scale of new loans, keep the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth, and keep the macro leverage basically stable. The government work report has laid a combination of proactive fiscal policy, improved efficiency and prudent monetary policy, flexible and appropriate macroeconomic policies, and ensured a monetary policy dominated by China and with strong independence. The liquidity of the A-share market is likely to remain reasonably abundant, which will escort the market of A-shares, especially the non bank sector.
The government work report establishes the policy direction of the capital market and promotes the full implementation of the stock issuance registration system. In terms of the capital market, the government report pointed out that we should improve the bond financing support mechanism of private enterprises, fully implement the stock issuance registration system, and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market. In terms of the registration system, the representatives and members put forward the following suggestions: 1) to implement the registration system on the main board, we should adhere to the principle of stability and seek progress in stability, not only reflect the requirements of the registration system, but also meet the characteristics of the main board. We also need to study the relevant systems of Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, formulate reform plans, and further study and optimize the audit and registration mechanism; 2) Promoting the comprehensive registration system and increasing support for direct financing can enable more enterprises to have convenient financing channels and achieve faster and higher quality development. The government work report establishes the policy prospect of the comprehensive registration system reform of a shares. The main board has a great opportunity to introduce the registration system this year. The A-share market is expected to usher in further expansion, focusing on the good securities sector, especially the leading investment banking business.
The performance of life insurance in the first month was under pressure, the quantity and quality of auto insurance increased, and the certainty was consolidated. 1) The original premium of the life insurance industry in January was 838.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%. The sales pressure of new orders is still large, and the willingness of financial management and savings under the influence of the epidemic is still relatively low; Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of health insurance is 0.5%, which can still maintain a certain growth under the high base of switching between new and old serious illness products last year, reflecting that the transformation of residents’ security awareness to demand is still progressing steadily. We believe that the construction of the three pillar pension system is expected to further activate the security demand, and the market space is worth looking forward to. 2) The premium growth rate of the property insurance industry in January reached 13.5% (compared with + 0.1% in the same period last year), of which the premium growth rate of automobile insurance reached 12%, an increase of 25pp compared with the same period last year. We believe that automobile insurance has entered a double optimization channel of scale improvement and cost rate improvement, and the growth certainty has been further consolidated.
Investment proposal and investment object
In terms of securities companies, double click on market liquidity and policy, continue to be optimistic about the spring market of the sector, select high-quality targets with fundamentals, and maintain the optimistic rating of the industry. At present, it is still the first to promote the main line of derivatives, recommending Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) ( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , overweight), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ( Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , overweight), and paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (03908, not rated); Secondly, we should continue to pay attention to the main line of public offering and recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) ( Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , buy) and China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) ( China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , increase Holdings).
In terms of diversified finance, A-Shares recommend the leading lessee of aerial working platform (AWP) Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) ( Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , buy); Hong Kong stocks recommend financial leasing leader Far East Hongxin (03360, buy), Asia Pacific exchange leader Hong Kong Exchange (00388, overweight), Asia Pacific Aircraft Leasing leader BOC aviation leasing (02588, overweight).
In terms of insurance, the scale of the team has gradually bottomed out, the production capacity of the remaining team has been improved, and it is expected to start a good start gradually; The inflection point of property insurance has arrived, and we look forward to the synchronous improvement of premium and cor; The outlook of the equity market is optimistic, and the liberalization of the investment ceiling adds upward flexibility. We are optimistic about large insurance companies that actively promote reform and enhance production capacity through science and technology empowerment and cross sales, and maintain the optimistic rating of the industry. Follow up suggestions focus on Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) ( Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , buy), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) ( China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , not rated), AIA (01299, not rated). Risk statement
The suppression of systemic risk on the performance and valuation of securities business; Stricter supervision than expected;
The long-term interest rate is lower than expected; Related policy risks in diversified financial field.
