Key investment points
Port data in late February
(1) overall: cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports: year-on-year + 10.2%, including foreign trade throughput + 2.1% year-on-year. In late February, cargo throughput of major coastal hub ports increased by 10.2% year-on-year; Among them, the foreign trade throughput was + 2.1% year-on-year, an increase of 6.4pct compared with - 4.3% year-on-year in mid February.
Container hub throughput in late August + 18.5% (container hub + 18.2% year-on-year). Among them, the throughput of foreign trade containers was + 26.7% (the former value was - 3.1%) and that of domestic trade containers was - 2.0% (the former value was + 46.5%) year-on-year. With the gradual resumption of production by local production enterprises after the Spring Festival, the throughput of foreign trade containers increased strongly.
(3) throughput of key goods and port inventory
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, year-on-year - 7.4% (previous value - 22.4%); In terms of port deposits, year-on-year - 1.2% (previous value - 0.1%). Iron ore: in terms of throughput, year-on-year + 7.2% (previous value + 0.8%); In terms of port storage, from the perspective of 45 ports nationwide, the port storage of iron ore on February 25 was 159 million tons, an increase of 24.2% over the same period last year. Coal: in terms of throughput, Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua Port - 7.3% year-on-year (previous value + 1.7%); In terms of port deposit, according to the caliber of Qinhuangdao Port + Shenhua Huanghua, the year-on-year rate was - 21.2% (the former value was - 0.5%).
The adjustment of charging policy is expected to have a neutral impact on the port, and continue to pay attention to the adjustment of container handling rate. The adjustment of charging policy is expected to have a neutral impact on the port: on March 2, the notice of the Ministry of transport and the national development and Reform Commission on reducing and merging port charges and other related matters adjusted the charging methods of two ports: 1) cancel the government pricing of port facility safety premium and change it to the market regulated price, Include the port operation lump sum fee as a sub item, and the fee shall not be higher than the original fee standard, which is not reduced or cancelled; 2) Adjust the charging structure of pilotage (shifting) fees by category and implement price adjustment in different proportions. The directional reduction of fees is not related to the port revenue.
Continue to pay attention to the adjustment of container handling rate: on December 1 last year, Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) announced that the handling fee of 20 foot and 40 foot empty and heavy containers of shipping companies will be increased by about 10% from January 1, 2022; On December 3 last year, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) announced that the transfer fee of 20 foot heavy containers for domestic trade was increased by about 50%; On December 8 last year, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) announced that from January 1, 2022, the lump sum fee for port operation of ordinary foreign trade heavy container barge gathering mode will be increased by about 8%, and the fee for ordinary foreign trade heavy container trailer gathering mode and empty container will be increased by about 19%; On February 9, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct announced that the handling charges of 40 foot and 20 foot heavy containers in foreign trade were increased by about 14% and 12% respectively.
Sensitivity measurement: price adjustment is expected to bring revenue increment, but there is no marginal cost. We assume that the price of comprehensive container business in each port will increase by 10%. It is estimated that:
1) Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : in 2020, the container related revenue was 13.345 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.307 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 12%;
2) Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) 2020 container related revenue is 5.554 billion yuan, and the total net profit attributable to the parent company is 3.431 billion yuan. If the comprehensive price increases by 10%, the static profit elasticity is about 12.1%;
3) in 2020, the revenue of qqct (51% equity participation) in charge of container business was 3.874 billion yuan, and the Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) total net profit attributable to parent company was 3.842 billion yuan. If the container price increased by 10%, the static profit elasticity was about 4% Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited(601018) , Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) , Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) , Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) , Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct's price adjustment of handling charges is an adjustment to the published price, but it should be noted that there are differences between the published rate and the actual agreed rate signed with the shipping company, which does not rule out adopting different price strategies for customers of different shipping companies.
Latest monthly port data
(1) in February, the cargo throughput of coastal ports was mainly monitored: year-on-year + 2.5% (previous value + 3.2%)
(2) container: in February, the container throughput of the eight hub ports was + 2.8% year-on-year, of which the foreign trade container throughput was + 2.7% (previous value + 4.1%), and the growth rate decreased by 1.4pct.
(3) throughput of key goods
Crude oil: in terms of throughput, February was - 14.9% (previous value + 1.0%); Iron ore: in terms of throughput, February was + 4.6% (previous value + 10.6%); Coal: in terms of throughput, February was - 6.3% (previous value + 4.9%) (Port Association focuses on monitoring port caliber).
(4) key coastal ports
In January, the cargo throughput of major coastal ports in Jiangsu Province increased rapidly, and the Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) cargo throughput increased by + 16.7% year-on-year in the same month. The year-on-year growth rates of Yingkou port and Beibu Gulf Port Co.Ltd(000582) month were 18.6% and 11.4% respectively.
In January, the cargo throughput in Jiangsu increased year-on-year, with Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) growth rate of 7.6%. The throughput of Qinhuangdao port increased significantly year-on-year in January, with a growth rate of 108.3% in that month.
Key ports: Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large city caliber) achieved a cargo throughput of 55 million tons Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) foreign trade cargo throughput and container throughput increased by + 5.4% and + 6.1% respectively year on year.
Latest shipping rate index
Baltic dry bulk index (BDI): on March 2, the BDI index was 2137 points, a decrease of 0.5% compared with February 22 and a year-on-year increase of 29.4%.
Crude oil transportation index (BDTI): on March 2, the BDTI index was 1466 points, an increase of 105.0% over February 22 and 119.5% year-on-year.
Shanghai export container freight index (SCFI): on February 25, the SCFI index was 4818 points, down 2.58% from February 18 and up 67.5% from a year ago.
China's export container freight index (CCFI): on February 25, the CCFI index was 3426 points, a decrease of 2.13% compared with February 18 and a significant year-on-year increase of 65.4%.
The investment proposal RCEP has officially come into force, which is expected to catalyze the leading throughput of coastal hub ports in the medium and long term. The regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement entered into force on 1 January 2022. With the formal entry into force of RCEP, Member States will immediately implement zero tariffs on a large number of products. In the future, 90% of products will enjoy zero tariffs in about 10 years. According to the prediction of surging news, by 2030, RCEP is expected to drive the net increase of exports of Member States by US $519 billion, and the growth of medium and long-term foreign trade volume will catalyze the leading throughput of coastal hub ports.
Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) : the logic of increasing quantity and stabilizing price is verified step by step. Benefiting from the growth of container business driven by the expansion of routes and the release of new liquid bulk cargo capacity in Dongjiakou port area, the liquid bulk cargo throughput increased. Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) (large market caliber) completed 630 million tons of cargo throughput in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 4.3%, and 23.71 million TEU of container throughput, a year-on-year increase of + 7.8%; In terms of rates, on January 28, 51% of the equity of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) group was transferred to Shandong Port Group free of charge to complete the industrial and commercial change registration, and the actual controller of Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) shares was changed to Shandong SASAC, further promoting the improvement of regional port pattern in Shandong Province. It is expected that the rate side will continue to improve, In addition, on February 9, Qingdao Port International Co.Ltd(601298) qqct announced that the handling charges of 40 foot and 20 foot heavy containers for foreign trade were increased by about 14% and 12% respectively Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : underestimate the leading value, benefit from the location advantages, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of the company's main port industry. In 2021, the company's container throughput increased by + 8.1% year-on-year to 47.033 million TEU, and the cargo throughput increased by + 5.7% year-on-year to 539 million tons. On January 7, the company held a 2022 port and shipping business consultation conference to discuss port and shipping cooperation with major domestic and foreign trade shipping companies, and reached a consensus on consolidating the original cooperation and jointly developing new mechanisms. In addition, with the help of Haifa new port opened for operation, the company's home port is expected to further strengthen business ties with ports on the "maritime Silk Road" in the future and continue to consolidate the company's position as an international shipping hub port.
Risk warning: deterioration of Global trade; The duration of the global epidemic exceeded expectations; The port policy was less than expected.
