This week’s view
The market continued to be under pressure this week, of which Shenwan chemical fell 1.81%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.13%. In terms of targets, in addition to the targets with strong fundamentals such as natural gas, coal chemical industry, soda ash, silicone and methionine, the top targets also include subject targets, such as covid-19 concept, nuclear pollution prevention and control and hydrogen fuel cell. Since the beginning of this year, the strong oil price has continued to disturb the market. On the one hand, it has put pressure on the downstream and weakened the previous dilemma reversal logic. On the other hand, the market’s expectations for inflation have also changed; We believe that there is still great uncertainty at present, and the best strategy may still be defense, reducing the position and watching it change. Looking back, we think there are three main lines worthy of attention. One is the opportunities brought by the high boom of global priced commodities, such as oil and potash fertilizer, the other is chemicals with high production capacity in Europe, such as methionine, and the third is low value and high red standard.
Portfolio recommendation
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 426 Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) Jiangsu Flag Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(300575) Sichuan Em Technology Co.Ltd(601208)
Major events of this week
Silicon industry chain: the downstream demand support is strong, and the prices of metal silicon, organosilicon and trichlorosilane rise one after another: the prices of silicon-based materials increased differently this week. As of March 4, the average price of metal silicon 421 in Yunnan was 23250 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 5.0%, and the average price of metal silicon 553 in Sichuan was 21300 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 5.5%; The market price of organosilicon DMC in East China increased by 7.1% to 37500 yuan / ton; Ordinary grade trichlorosilane increased by 20.7% to 17500 yuan / ton, and photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane increased by 35.1% to 25000 yuan / ton. By product: both metallic silicon and trichlorosilane benefit from the growth in the demand for downstream polycrystalline silicon. Since this year, with the continuous release of 40000 tons of new production capacity of Asian silicon industry and 20000 tons of poly GCL, the demand for upstream raw materials has been continuously increased. Considering that polycrystalline silicon accounts for a higher proportion in the consumption structure of trichlorosilane, it has a relatively greater marginal impact on trichlorosilane. In terms of silicone, in addition to the cost support of metal silicon, the demand side, especially the export orders, performed well. In addition, in terms of supply, the production of monomer devices of individual foreign enterprises was affected by force majeure, and various factors jointly promoted the price upward. In the long run, the new production capacity of polysilicon is planned to be put into operation faster than that of metal silicon and trichlorosilane in the next two years, and the tight state of supply and demand is expected to be maintained; Silicone began to enter the production capacity launch period in the second half of this year, and the short-term shortage of supply is expected to be alleviated.
Potash industry: the signing of large contracts supports China’s potash market, further sanctions against Belarus and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are expected to further aggravate the uncertainty of global potash supply, and potash prices are expected to remain high. At present, the price of potash fertilizer remains high, but the decline of import volume in the early stage consumes China’s inventory of potash fertilizer to a certain extent, and the supply of potash fertilizer is still in a tight situation. China’s self-sufficiency rate of potash fertilizer is insufficient, which needs the source of imported goods. While overseas Belarus is subject to sanctions, Russia is caught in international conflict, and the uncertain increase of overseas potash fertilizer supply further aggravates the state of insufficient supply, It is expected that the price of potash fertilizer will remain high and further rise will not be ruled out. The supply of potash fertilizer in China is slightly better than that in overseas countries. Affected by national policies, the price of potash fertilizer is relatively flat, the large contract price will support the existing water level, the price center of domestic potash fertilizer has room for slow improvement, and overseas potash fertilizer production enterprises are expected to benefit from the significant increase of international potash fertilizer prices.
Risk tips
The epidemic affects the demand outside China, the crude oil price fluctuates violently, and the change of trade policy affects the industrial layout.
