Key investment points:
On March 3, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the notice on accelerating the construction of power spot market. The notice pointed out that in principle, the first batch of pilot areas will carry out the long-term continuous trial operation of spot market in 2022, and the second batch of pilot areas will start the trial operation of spot market before the end of June 2022.
Why carry out spot electricity trading? In the electricity market, the medium and long-term trading and spot trading of electricity complement each other, which can promote the consumption of new energy for selling provinces. Taking Gansu as an example, the cross regional spot trading has been 8.734tw · h since 2017, increasing the utilization rate of new energy by 6 percentage points; For buying provinces, it can support the orderly supply of peak power. In addition, the spot trading market transmits the timing price and location signal of power, which provides reference for time-of-use price and node price.
Power spot trading status? In terms of trading areas, China has formed an “8 + 6” spot market pilot; In terms of transaction price, the average spot transaction price of China’s power has been rising. At present, the average transaction price is 0.4-0.5 yuan / kwh; From the perspective of trading power, the current proportion of spot trading in the power consumption of the whole society is less than 10%, the proportion of short-term spot trading may increase, and it will be stable in a small range in the long term.
What is the marginal impact of accelerating the construction of power spot? First, further ease the cost pressure of thermal power. Spot trading will form synergy with coal long-term cooperation mechanism and medium and long-term power trading mechanism to further ease the pressure on the cost side of thermal power and enhance the medium and long-term profit stability of thermal power enterprises. Second, promote the consumption of new energy. The orderly participation of new energy in spot market transactions will promote the formation of market-oriented green power transaction prices, help resolve the problem of abandoning wind and light in western provinces, and promote the consumption of new energy. Third, open the profit space. With the promotion of spot market construction, energy storage and distributed power generation will be guided to gradually participate in power spot trading, which will help to accelerate the recovery of investment costs and improve the rate of return of the project.
Investment suggestions: 1) in terms of the industry, the spot trading of electric power is carried out in an all-round way, so as to promote the participation of new energy in market trading, enhance the demand for green power trading, and effectively promote the consumption of new energy; Spot trading of thermal power will further ease the cost pressure and help thermal power enterprises repair their profits, which is expected to enhance the stability of medium and long-term profits. Maintain the industry “recommended” rating. 2) In terms of individual stocks, it is recommended that Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , and Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , China Resources Power, China power, Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated(600098) , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) ; Longyuan Power, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , CGN new energy; The target of nuclear power operation leader China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) ; Distributed photovoltaic field Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Ganghua gas, Skyworth Group, Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) , Hangzhou Star Shuaier Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002860) .
Risk tip: focus on the risk that the company’s performance improvement is not as expected, the continuous rise of coal price, the decline of electricity price, the demand for electricity is not as expected, and the risk of policy change.
