Core view
The goal of “steady growth” is clear, and infrastructure investment is expected to receive strong support. In the latest government work report, the government’s confidence and determination to “stabilize growth” have been strengthened again. From the perspective of fiscal policy, although the fiscal deficit ratio was slightly reduced to 2.8%, last year, certain state-owned financial institutions and specialized institutions will still provide financial support for this year, such as turning over the profits they have accumulated in recent years according to law and transferring them into the budget stability adjustment fund. The overall scale of fiscal expenditure will be more than 2 trillion yuan larger than last year; The level of local government special bonds is the same as last year’s 3.65 trillion. Considering that the issuance of special bonds was accelerated in the second half of last year, it is expected to be reflected in this year’s project construction. In terms of expanding domestic demand, the report added the expression of “moderately ahead of schedule infrastructure investment”, and emphasized the construction of key water conservancy projects, comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network, important energy bases and facilities, accelerated the renewal and transformation of official websites such as urban gas pipelines, and continued to promote the construction of underground comprehensive corridors; We will deepen the implementation of major regional strategies and coordinated regional development strategies, strengthen the infrastructure construction of county towns, steadily promote the construction of urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, and promote the coordinated development of large, medium-sized, small cities and small towns. On the whole, the report further defines the goal of “steady growth”, and infrastructure is expected to play an important supporting role.
The resumption of work after the festival is gradually opened, and attention is paid to the low value and high-quality leaders. At the beginning of the new year, the market’s worries about the future economic downturn spread, the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine brought more uncertain factors to the market, the market panic has not been eliminated, and the major indexes are in weak operation. In the same period, the central bank and the national development and Reform Commission have continuously introduced relevant measures to accelerate the “steady growth” force, and the two sessions have once again defined the goal of “steady growth”. At present, the industry has entered the stage of downstream demand recovery, and under the background of the continuous strengthening of “steady growth”, the traditional economic momentum is expected to play a supporting role. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant varieties dominated by infrastructure and real estate demand and with high safety margin of valuation, and grasp the window opportunity of cement and glass in the short term; The tracking and investment suggestions of each sub industry at the current time point are as follows:
Cement: with the improvement of the weather, the cement market has gradually entered a recovery period. Among them, the shipment rate of enterprises in the South has recovered about 60%, and that in the north is only 2-30%, both 20% – 30% lower than that in the same period last year. The price of cement in various regions is rising and falling. As of March 4, the national p.o42 5. The average price of high-standard cement was 512.5 yuan / ton, down 0.49% month on month, and the storage capacity ratio was 64.0%, down 1.9 percentage points month on month. In the short term, in the short term, the recovery of downstream demand is expected to accelerate gradually, and cement prices are expected to rebound steadily. It’s suggested to focus on the implementation of downstream infrastructure projects in the context of “steady growth” in the context of “steady growth” in the short term. It’s recommended to focus actively on the implementation of downstream infrastructure construction projects in the context of “steady growth” in the short term. In the short term, the recovery of downstream demand is expected to pick up in the short term, the recovery of downstream demand is expected to be gradually accelerating, and cement prices are expected to rebound. It’s recommended to focus on the landing of downstream infrastructure projects in the context of “steady growth” in the context of “steady growth” in the short term. It’s recommended to recommend Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) 85\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Ningxia Building Materials Group Co.Ltd(600449) ;
Glass: Recently, the industry mainly focuses on digesting inventory, and the downstream demand starts relatively slowly. Most of them have not returned to full load operation, and the price performance is under slight pressure. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of float glass in China’s mainstream market this week was 242805 yuan / ton, down 1.05% month on month. The inventory of production enterprises in key provinces was 37.17 million heavy containers, an increase of 4.03 million heavy containers month on month. Short term suggestions: pay attention to downstream commencement and new orders; The medium and long-term technological upgrading of the glass industry is still the focus. It is recommended that Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) .
Other building materials: ① glass fiber industry: the price of roving market has stabilized this week, and the price of mainstream products is planned to increase. The demand for joint-stock yarn products is general in the near future, and the local price may be under pressure. The recent shipment of electronic yarn market is relatively stable, and the short-term price may be temporarily stable after adjustment; In the medium and long term, the glass fiber industry is expected to enter a new stage of high-quality and orderly expansion of production capacity, driven by the demand side, the supply and demand pattern is expected to continue to be optimized, the competitive advantage of leading enterprises is expected to be further consolidated in the future, and the current price can continue to be long. It is recommended that China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ; ② Other building materials: the resilience of real estate investment remains, and the market share of leading enterprises in various sub industries has increased steadily. It is recommended to hold the bargain hunting layout for a long time. It is recommended to Ocean’S King Lighting Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002724) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) .
Risk warning: the landing of the project is lower than expected; Supply increased more than expected; Higher than expected cost increase
