Industry dynamic information
Downstream tracking: in late February, the production scheduling of automobile enterprises accelerated, and the production and sales of new energy continued to grow at a high rate
According to the statistics of the passenger Federation, the average daily retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars in China reached 80000 and 89000 respectively in the last week of February, a significant improvement over last week; It is estimated that the retail sales of passenger car terminals in China in February will be 1312000, with a year-on-year increase of 10% and a month on month decrease of 37%; In February, the wholesale sales of the main engine factory was 1.502 million, with a year-on-year increase of 31% and a month on month decrease of 30%. In addition, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in February disclosed by several auto companies this week showed a bright performance. The year-on-year growth rate of wholesale sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal and Xiaopeng in that month was about 195%, 266% and 180% respectively. SAIC Volkswagen benefited from the significant improvement of chip supply compared with the same period last year, and the sales volume increased by 79% year-on-year.
Upstream tracking: the price shock of raw materials has an upward impact on the profit recovery expectation of the sector
This week, the auto industry, especially the parts sector, made a sharp correction, and the market may be worried about the upward pressure on the price of upstream raw materials, superimposing some factors such as weak production scheduling of auto enterprises. We believe that: 1) driven by the rising cost last year, the leading parts and components have strengthened cost control, and the impact is weakened this year; The tail manufacturers are gradually cleared under the high cost, the industry pattern is optimized, and the long-term profitability is expected to be strengthened; 2) At present, the terminal discount of the whole vehicle is low, and the ASP of this round of independent brand new cars is upward, with obvious hedging; Q2 began to bring high growth due to low base, especially after the sales volume of head independent brands increased significantly, the scale cost was reduced; 3) Under the electric and intelligent dividends, the long-term pattern of the automotive industry has not been clear, the current time point revenue (Sales) is more important, and the industrial trend, market share and competitiveness are still the primary considerations in the target screening.
In 2022, the functional configuration of new models will be upgraded again, and the vehicle will be intelligent or speed up
The growth space of the auto parts industry mainly comes from the increase in the value of single car accessories brought by the upgraded configuration of consumer functions and electric intelligent pure incremental parts. In 2021, the new configuration of seats, air suspension, car machine, micro motor and other parts will accelerate the penetration. In 2022, the new configuration application of Tesla‘s new or modified models is expected to continue to strengthen the trend of consumption upgrading, Supporting suppliers are expected to fully benefit from their strong sales performance (Tesla sold 936000 vehicles worldwide in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 87%). In addition, in 2022, the penetration of L2 + level intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit of passenger cars is expected to accelerate, the listing of intelligent configuration of new models may become an important catalyst, and the market’s understanding of intelligent vehicles is expected to be significantly strengthened.
Investment advice: a sector that cannot be underestimated β， Grasp the growth of high-quality targets α
The short-term configuration cost performance may gradually appear, which is mainly due to: 1) in the short-term dimension, the sales data in March / April is expected to improve, pessimistic expectations or gradual repair, and the valuation of the sector has been adjusted; 2) The competitiveness of China’s strong independent brand automobile enterprises continues to increase, and the medium and long-term market share promotion trend is relatively clear. In particular, 2022 is expected to usher in a strong new model product cycle; 3) Under the expectation of steady economic growth in 2022, the demand for automobile terminal consumption is expected to improve, the impact of superimposed supply side “lack of core” is weakened, and the boom is expected to accelerate upward in the second half of the year; 4) With the strengthening of consumption attributes and the trend of electric intelligence, the demand for functional upgrading and incremental links of parts is expected to open up new growth space, focusing on the independent breaking of subdivided industries such as seat interior, integrated die casting and connectors. For the recommendation of the entire vehicle, such as the \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) , etc.
Risk tip: the rise of raw materials makes the enterprise’s profit less than expected; The improvement of automobile chip supply did not meet expectations; Automobile consumption demand did not meet expectations.
