Industry dynamic information
Core view:
Thinking this week: according to the consulting data of Yongyi, the chain ratio of fertile sows in February 2022 was + 0.32%, which remained stable as a whole. On the one hand, at the end of 2021, some farmers supplemented reserve sows during the recovery period of pig price, which led to a slight increase in production capacity month on month after the current conversion to energy breeding; On the other hand, under the guidance of market expectations, the current willingness of some farmers to eliminate production capacity may be insufficient.
Live pigs: the rise in grain prices exacerbated the pressure on breeding costs, and paid attention to the pace of capacity removal in March. The market price of commercial pigs this week was 12.39 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 0.11 yuan; The price of 15kg piglets is 400 yuan / head, with a month on month increase of + 1 yuan. This week, the price of pigs fluctuated mainly, the breeding end was in the mood of pressing the fence, the ring ratio of slaughter weight increased slightly, and the lifting range of demand end was general. Since the Spring Festival, the prices of feed raw materials such as corn, wheat and soybean meal have continued to rise, further exacerbating the cost pressure at the breeding end. In this context, capital reserves and cash flow have become important factors in the competition at the breeding end. At the same time, it is necessary to observe the real willingness and behavior of farmers to supplement (or eliminate) under the guidance of consistent expectations. Focus on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , and pay attention to Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , etc.
Seed industry: corn and wheat prices are strong in the short term
The optimistic assumption is that some genetically modified varieties may be approved at the beginning of this year, some genetically modified seeds can be listed and sold at the end of this year, and some enterprises can cash in their performance. In the medium and long term, the commercial application of genetically modified varieties is expected to promote the change of industry pattern and benefit high-quality industry leaders, such as Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , etc.
Dynamic insurance: pay attention to the sector valuation and repair market
In the future, the marginal improvement of breeding market, the growth track such as anti-virus and pets and the research and development of new products such as non plague vaccine are expected to provide market increment, and the performance of leading enterprises is expected to continue to grow. The current valuation of the sector is low, or usher in the valuation repair market. Focus on Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) , recommend Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201) , Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) , Qingdao Vland Biotech Inc(603739) , pay attention to Hvsen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300871) , etc.
Pet: performance and valuation are expected to double-click, and the rise of domestic products is still the main line of investment
In 2021, China’s urban pet (dog and cat) consumption market reached 249 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and the growth rate returned to the pre epidemic level. China’s pet industry is developing rapidly and its fundamentals remain unchanged. Pet food and medical care have natural advantages over other market segments. Continue to recommend favorite food targets Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) etc.
High quality industry leaders: recommended leaders in feed sector Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) and poultry industry chain Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) , yellow feather broiler targets Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) and Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) etc.
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuations in market prices caused by emergencies, the risk of epidemic diseases in the breeding industry, the risk of uncertain policies, the risk of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price fluctuations, etc.
