\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Key investment points
Operation: a net increase of 461 stores in Q4 reached a new high, and the RevPAR of the whole year recovered to 75% of that of 19 years
New hotel opening: in 2021, the company opened 1418 new hotels, with a year-on-year increase of 56%. The opening scale reached the highest level in history, and achieved the business goal of 14001600 stores in 2021. In Q4, 585 companies were newly opened, accounting for 41% of the whole year, an increase of 80% over Q3; According to the situation in the first three quarters, we expect Q4 company to continue the expansion trend of light management brand (the net increase of Q3 light management hotels accounts for 83%).
Net increase of hotels: by the end of 2021, the number of hotels of the company had reached 5916, an increase of 20.9% over the end of last year, with a net increase of 1021 stores. In Q4, the company has a net increase of 461 stores, a record high, and the net increase in a single quarter exceeds that in 2019 and 2020.
Operation: the RevPAR of the company in 2021 was about 119 yuan / night, an increase of 20% over 2020 and a decrease of 25% over 2019.
Performance express of the first brigade in 2021: Q4 lost 70 million yuan, and the annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 55.68 million yuan
Revenue side: the company’s revenue in 2021 was 6.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16% in 20 years and – 26% in 19 years; Among them, Q4’s revenue was 1.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of – 16% in 20 years and – 31% in 19 years. Profit side: the total profit of the company in 2021 was 6.04 million yuan, 20 years was – 590 million yuan; The annual net profit attributable to the parent company is 55.68 million yuan, deducting 10.95 million yuan of non attributable net profit, which is – 500 million yuan and – 530 million yuan respectively in 20 years, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 is – 70 million yuan and that in 20q4 is 60 million yuan.
Profit forecast and valuation
The epidemic crisis is conducive to the chain process of the industry, and the leader is always strong; With the recovery of demand in the hotel industry, the proportion of High Direct stores brings high performance elasticity. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years is 56 million yuan, 942 million yuan and 1475 million yuan respectively, and EPS (latest dilution) is 0.05, 0.84 and 1.31 yuan / share respectively. Driven by the three-year goal of ten thousand stores, the company will have high growth in the short term, increase the proportion of franchisees & the proportion of medium and high-end stores, improve profitability, accelerate the expansion of cloud brands, enhance revenue stability and maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the industry demand is lower than expected, and the exhibition speed is lower than expected.
