\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 309 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) )
Key investment points:
The competitive advantage of the next wave in the chemical industry lies in the bonus of engineers. Wanhua is a rare model in China that drives the development of companies with technological innovation. Based on excellent culture, the company has created two moats of high technology and low cost through technological innovation and excellent operation Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is becoming one of the global chemical giants with the pace of cyclical growth stocks.
In the short term, the impact of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) fundamentals is the prosperity of products. From the perspective of characterization indicators, price spread is the core factor affecting short-term profits Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has an increasingly large product system. In order to better represent the prosperity of the company, we take Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ‘s product system as a whole, model the difference between revenue and raw materials according to the existing product system, trace the price difference between revenue and raw materials in history under the existing product system, and define the price difference as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) price difference index, To judge the prosperity position of the company. In the long run, the fundamental aspect affecting Wanhua is its future growth. Landmark products that can prove the company’s ability to continuously evolve are very important. If an excellent company can succeed on different tracks, it will prove that it has the ability of continuous evolution and will be able to grow continuously The company’s future development is the direction of mdi the company’s future development.
Progress of key projects
Recently, the official website of the Anti Monopoly Bureau of the State Administration of market supervision disclosed the case of establishing a new joint venture between Baowu Carbon Industry Technology Co., Ltd. and Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Co., Ltd. Baowu carbon industry plans to establish a new joint venture with Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) Zhejiang Baowan Carbon Fiber Co., Ltd. in Zhejiang, with Baowu carbon industry holding 51% equity and Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) holding 49% equity, The proposed joint venture will involve the polyacrylonitrile (Pan) – based carbon fiber market.
On February 7, 2022, during the centralized commencement of major projects in Fujian Province in the first quarter, the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Fujian) 800000 T / a PVC project and 250000 T / a TDI expansion project started on the same day.
On February 8, 2022, the environmental impact assessment documents of the wharf tank farm project of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Fujian) wharf Co., Ltd. were accepted and publicized. According to the plan, the project will have the annual turnover capacity of 1.05 million tons of benzene, 450000 tons of aniline, 1.2 million tons of caustic soda and 400000 tons of methanol.
On February 14, 2022, the draft of the environmental impact report of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) polyether amine project with an annual output of 40000 tons was publicized. The 40000 t / a polyether amine main plant, supporting utilities and auxiliary facilities will be built in Wanhua Yantai Industrial Park.
On February 22, 2022, the environmental impact assessment of the propane / Butane cavern project of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Fujian) new materials Co., Ltd. was publicized for the first time. Wanhua Fujian Industrial Park plans to invest 2.316 billion yuan to build two Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) cubic propane underground caverns and one 500000 cubic butane underground cavern.
According to Zhuo Chuang information, recently, Ningdong energy and chemical industry base will focus on the implementation of “eight 10 billion yuan” major projects in the fields of energy transformation and development, cultivation of emerging industries and upgrading of traditional industries, among which Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) invested 15 billion yuan in MDI separation and propylene BDO are shortlisted Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) this investment mainly focuses on the construction of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a MDI separation and 320000 T / a propylene BDO.
According to incomplete statistics, calculated according to the average price in 2021, if all Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) existing planned projects are put into operation as scheduled, it is estimated that the new revenue will be 19.8 billion yuan in 2022, 54.2 billion yuan in 2023, and 146.3 billion yuan after all projects are put into operation.
MDI price spread
In February 2022, the average price of aggregate MDI was 20957 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of – 3.01% and a month on month increase of – 0.18%; The average price of pure MDI was 22879 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of – 4.90% and a month on month increase of + 6.84%. On February 28, 2022, the price of aggregate MDI is 19700 yuan / ton, and the price of pure MDI is 25000 yuan / ton. In February 2022, the average price difference between polymerized MDI and coal and pure benzene was 14534 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year ratio of – 14.45% and a month on month ratio of – 2.33%; The average price difference of pure MDI was 16455 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.35% and a month on month increase of + 7.55%. On February 28, 2022, the price difference between polymerized MDI and coal and pure benzene was 13282 yuan / ton, and the price difference of pure MDI was 18582 yuan / ton.
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) spread index is in the historical quantile of 38.35%
As of February 28, 2022, Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) price spread index in 2022 was 100.95, 0.90 lower than Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 38.35%, down 1.05 percentage points from Q4 in 2021. Among them, the price spread index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) polyurethane sector in 2022 was 125.74, an increase of 9.03 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 38.94%, an increase of 6.27 percentage points over Q4 in 2021. The price spread index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) petrochemical sector in 2022 was 81.40, a decrease of 10.65 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 28.95%, 18.68 percentage points lower than Q4 in 2021. The price spread index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) new materials in 2022 was 53.98, a decrease of 13.32 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 17.92%, down 16.32 percentage points from Q4 in 2021.
The output of refrigerators, freezers and cars in the downstream and the new construction of real estate improved month on month
In 2021, China produced 89.93 million household refrigerators, a year-on-year increase of – 1.1%; The export volume was 71.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of + 2.4%. In 2021, China produced 29.06 million refrigerators, a year-on-year increase of – 4.5%. Among them, in December 2021, China produced 7.578 million household refrigerators, with a year-on-year increase of – 5.20% and a month on month increase of – 6.27%; The export volume was 5.46 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 15.74% and a month on month increase of – 34.0%; China’s refrigerator output was 2.736 million units, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.5% and a month on month increase of + 3.1%.
In January 2022, China’s automobile output was 2.422 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.4% and a month on month increase of – 16.7%; China’s automobile sales volume was 2.531 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.1% and a month on month increase of – 9.2%.
In 2021, the new construction area of houses was 1.989 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 11.4%; Among them, in December 2021, the new construction area of houses was 161 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of – 31.1%, unchanged month on month. In 2021, the cumulative construction area of houses was 9.754 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 5.2%.
Profit forecast and investment rating
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 25.003 billion, RMB 26.637 billion and RMB 31.02 billion respectively, corresponding to PE 11.5, 10.8 and 9.3 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
Economic downturn; The project construction is not as expected; The market fluctuates greatly; New products are not as expected; Environmental protection and safety production; Intensified competition in the same industry; Product prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
